Mailbag: Major NCAA basketball case, CFP payouts, SEC and Big Ten breakaway options, Pac-12 schedule matters and more
The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include “mailbag” in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline. Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
And if you missed it, last week’s mailbag examined two recent developments that could make a super league more likely.
What are the ramifications of the Alabama basketball player with pro experience getting temporary eligibility to play college basketball? — @dukestainer
Rarely does the mailbag begin with college basketball, but the curious case of Charles Bediako is momentous and timely. It could fundamentally change the sport in the next four days — and not in a good way.
If you’re unfamiliar, Bediako played two seasons for Alabama before signing with an agent and entering the 2023 NBA Draft. He wasn’t selected but played for San Antonio’s summer league team, signed a contract with the franchise and played for its G League affiliate. (He later signed with the Nuggets and played for their G League team, as well.)
Unsatisfied with his pro career, Bediako is now trying to join the Crimson Tide for the rest of the season. The NCAA denied his eligibility request, and Bediako (of course) responded with a lawsuit. The judge, James Roberts, who is purportedly an Alabama donor, subsequently issued a 10-day temporary restraining order allowing Bediako to play. The Crimson Tide hosts Tennessee on Saturday night, and a hearing is scheduled for Tuesday.
The situation is unprecedented. Bediako would be the first player to participate in college basketball, turn pro, sign an NBA deal and then return to school.
Put another way: His case, if successful, would take a sledgehammer to the wall that separates the NCAA from the NBA.
College players who don’t withdraw from the draft by the NCAA-mandated deadline and sign NBA deals are not allowed to return to school.
Bediako is basing his argument on the fact that he never played in the NBA, only the G League. But if the court allows him to move from college to the pros and back to college, everything would change. What would stop players from entering the draft, signing NBA deals, playing professionally and then making themselves available to college teams at will?
At that point, with rules governing draft eligibility in tatters, what would prevent players from entering the NBA in the middle of January, using free agency, not the draft, as their vehicle?
It would cause complete havoc at both levels of the game.
And the NCAA, which is adamantly opposed to Bediako returning to school, could be powerless to stop him. (If it happens in basketball, there’s a good chance it will eventually happen in football.)
Now, there’s an additional element to this: Bediako’s eligibility window.
The NCAA allows athletes to play four seasons within a five-year window that opens when they start competing. Bediako’s freshman year in Tuscaloosa was 2021-22, meaning his clock would expire this spring — unless, of course, the eligibility clock is also rendered illegal by the courts.
We urge all college basketball fans to follow this case. The implications of Tuesday’s hearing are nothing less than momentous.
What are the odds the Big Ten and SEC (followed immediately by the ACC and Big 12) pull football, and probably basketball, out from the NCAA’s umbrella by the 2028 season? I think it’s near 90 percent. How else can they get a collective bargaining agreement, enforcement and antitrust protection? — @sg2waugh
The Hotline has long believed that football would untether itself from the NCAA, but probably not until the 2030s. Basketball and the Olympic sports have more complicated paths to independence, in part because the NCAA operates the championships for those sports (and does it very well).
However, the Bediako case could expedite the breakup. If the worst-case scenario unfolds — the worst case for the schools and the system, not for Bediako — then we might see the major conferences scramble for alternatives.
Collective bargaining is the only solution for all the issues, from eligibility to the playing calendar to the transfer portal to NIL rules and regulations. But there can be no collective bargaining without a players union, and the schools are loath to take that step.
Another issue: Not all football players would seek the same terms.
Contract terms that work best for Ohio State’s quarterback might not work best for Montana State’s quarterback. Would both the FBS and FCS athletes bargain collectively? Would it be just the FBS? Only the Power Four?
Challenges abound, but many believe a CBA is inevitable. And if the courts use Bediako’s case to smash the wall separating the NCAA from the NBA and NFL, thereby allowing players to move back and forth at will, the move to an independent entity with football and basketball unions could come sooner than later.
Has it already been announced that the Pac-12 basketball tournament winners in 2026 and beyond will receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament? — @Celestialmosh
The champions of officially-recognized conferences receive automatic bids to March Madness, and the Pac-12 will clear the threshold next season when it competes as a nine-team entity.
That’s not an issue.
The issue is whether the rebuilt Pac-12 becomes a multi-bid league annually or is cast down to one-bid status more often than not.
Our hunch is the former. Gonzaga is tantamount to a March Madness lock as long as Mark Few remains in charge, while the combination of San Diego State, Utah State, and Boise State should qualify for the NCAAs frequently. The Aztecs, for example, have participated in each of the past five seasons and in 12 of the past 15.
As the Hotline noted in the fall: “The new Pac-12 should be more competitive nationally in men’s basketball than it will be in football.”
Is it time for Bill Snyder to move over? Compared to what Curt Cignetti was up against at Indiana, Kansas State was a college football success before Snyder arrived. — Jon J
Many longtime college football observers believe Snyder orchestrated the greatest long-haul rebuilding job in the sport’s history. Kansas State was less-than-nothing before he arrived (its record the prior four seasons: 3-40) and turned into a perennial power in the Big Eight and Big 12 under his leadership.
Cignetti needs to stick around another four or five years and win eight or 10 games regularly before joining Snyder’s class.
That said, the Hotline firmly believes Cignetti has produced the greatest short-term coaching performance (i.e., two or three seasons) in the history of American college or professional sports.
The most startling aspect of his reclamation project is that so many key players were under-recruited or overlooked. Cignetti’s evaluation and development skills are unmatched.
Star receiver Elijah Sarratt, for instance, was a no-star, no-nothing recruit who began his career at Saint Francis, an FCS school in Pennsylvania, before transferring to James Madison and then following Cignetti to Indiana.
Plenty of middle- and lower-tier power conference schools view the Hoosiers as a sign that anything is capable in the NIL/transfer portal era.
And that’s true … if you have a coach as sharp as Cignetti.
What is your latest conference realignment projection for the various ACC schools and approximately when? — @JimSkin70758794
There is more clarity with the timing than the destination.
In 2030, the cost to depart the ACC becomes a manageable (or manageable enough) $75 million, and the Big Ten’s media rights contract expires.
It would be the optimal time for the Big Ten to expand and the ideal time for ACC schools to depart.
Of course, realignment discussions and negotiations typically play out behind the scenes long before the deals are consummated and announced publicly. As a result, we fully expect the top of the ACC to actively pursue options in the Big Ten (and SEC) starting in 2028, if not late 2027.
Clemson and Florida State, whose lawsuits resulted in the cheaper exit fees, will be atop the list of schools with wandering eyes. North Carolina, Miami, and Georgia Tech could have value on the realignment market, as well.
If some combination of that quintet leaves the conference, the dozen or so that remain will desperately seek realignment deals with the Big East or Big 12 (or both).
The endgame is difficult to picture clearly because so many factors are involved (including the super league option). But it would be a bad scene for the schools left behind. It always is.
Did Wyoming foreshadow the Mountain West’s media deal, and what are your predictions for TV networks and dollars? — @brycetacoma
For those unfamiliar, an enterprising college football sleuth uncovered what is purported to be Wyoming’s funding request of the state legislature for 2026-27. It indicates the Cowboys will experience an estimated decline of $1 million annually from the Mountain West’s media rights deal as a result of membership changes.
Keep in mind that media negotiations are fluid. We probably won’t have official numbers until the conference announces the terms of the deal (unlikely) or the schools submit their 2027 fiscal year budgets to the NCAA.
The deal has not been announced. But an industry source with deep connections in the media rights world told the Hotline a few months ago that the Mountain West’s new agreement probably would distribute less revenue to the schools, on average, than the current agreement.
What does that mean in terms of dollars? In 2020, the conference struck a six-year deal with CBS and Fox for roughly $4 million per school per year (on average). We would not be the least bit surprised if the next contract spins off $2.5 million or $3 million per campus per year.
There is less clarity on the identity of the partners, although it stands to reason that Fox, which did not sign with the new Pac-12, would want to maintain inventory in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones beyond its five Big 12 and four Big Ten schools.
Why was Washington able to keep quarterback Demond Williams when Wisconsin couldn’t keep defensive back Xavier Lucas in a similar situation? — @draywilson
Good question. We don’t want to get too deep in the legal weeds, but here’s a surface-level explanation:
Lucas left Wisconsin for Miami last winter without using the transfer portal — he simply withdrew from school in Madison. With the Big Ten’s support, the Badgers subsequently filed a lawsuit against the Hurricanes (over tampering) that is winding through the court system.
But revenue sharing wasn’t the law of the land in college athletics until July. At that point, the Big Ten leaned into the Lucas experience and provided schools with a template for revenue-sharing contracts.
Washington used that template when it signed Williams earlier this month. When he tried to break the deal — Miami was one of the schools believed to be in play, along with LSU — it quickly became apparent that the Huskies had an airtight agreement, courtesy of the Big Ten’s legal team. (If Williams left the program, he would owe $4 million.)
Wisconsin simply didn’t have the contractual framework in place with Lucas because revenue sharing had not yet become a reality.
Any idea yet when the Big Ten and Pac-12 will be announcing their 2026 football schedules? — Bruce C
The Big Ten has set its schedule release for Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. (Pacific), but there is no word on the Pac-12’s timeline.
The reconstructed conference was waiting for a decision on College Football Playoff expansion before finalizing its schedule and championship game location.
Now that we know the CFP is not expanding for next season, the process should move rapidly.
Our best guess for the schedule release is the first half of February, with each team playing eight league games, including a home-and-home series.
For example, Colorado State could play San Diego State at home and on the road in the same fashion that Washington State and Oregon State played each other twice in 2025.
It’s the most fiscally responsible option given the expense involved in buying home games against FCS opponents.
Also, with the SEC and ACC moving to nine-game conference schedules, there simply are not as many opportunities to play power conference opponents.
Please publish the final CFP payouts to each conference (per team). — @Jalex0077
No problem, happy to provide the numbers.
The round-by-round payouts are as follows:
— $4 million for making the field
— $4 million for making the quarterfinals (including teams with byes)
— $6 million for making the semifinals
— $6 million for making the final
The American and Sun Belt each received $4 million for their champions, Tulane and James Madison, respectively, playing in the opening round. (The American took home a $4 million bonus based on a rule change from 2024, according to Forces.)
The Big 12 collected just $8 million for Texas Tech making the field and being seeded into the quarterfinals.
The ACC earned $20 million for Miami advancing, although the Hurricanes keep the entire amount due to the conference’s postseason revenue model.
The SEC took home $38 million, and the Big Ten earned $42 million — that’s 68.9 percent of the total, just for those two leagues.
Keep in mind that 2025 marked the final year of the CFP’s original contract with ESPN. The new deal pays more (approximately $1.3 billion per year), and the cash will be distributed in fixed amounts to the conferences with no regard for participation.
Each SEC school will receive about $23 million annually under the new model, with its Big Ten counterparts collecting $21 million.
The ACC schools will receive roughly $14 million, and Big 12 schools about $12 million.
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