The Hotline’s (ridiculously) early Top 25 for the 2026 season: Indiana, Texas, Oregon and Notre Dame lead the way
This time next year, the College Football Playoff will be a week away from crowning a winner. The national championship for the 2026 season is scheduled for Jan. 25, 2027 (in Las Vegas) — the latest date for the title game in the sport’s history.
The Hotline prefers things on the early side. For example: Our forecast for the upcoming season.
This is either the 19th or 20th annual edition — we lost count long ago — and is counting on the laws of probability. It cannot possibly be more inaccurate than the version published in this space a year ago, which had Clemson, Penn State and Texas in the top five.
Alas, onward and upward …
1. Indiana
Sure, the Hoosiers are losing their star quarterback (Fernando Mendoza) and a slew of All-American-caliber players. But coach Curt Cignetti’s program deserves the same benefit of the doubt that Ohio State or Georgia would receive under similar circumstances. Those circumstances would be a proven ability to identify and develop players at the highest level, chainsaw efficiency, superb discipline and the presence of a gifted, experienced quarterback: Josh Hoover and his 71 career touchdown passes are headed to Bloomington from TCU.
2. Texas
Arch Manning returns for what should be his final collegiate season and is expected to pick up where he left off against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl (four touchdowns). He will have elite playmakers thanks to massive upgrades via the transfer portal — the list of newcomers includes Arizona State tailback Raleek Brown — and the defense should be stout. The Longhorns didn’t meet preseason expectations in 2025, but they weren’t exactly chopped steer, either. A third CFP berth in four years awaits.
3. Oregon
We considered the Ducks for No. 1 the moment Dante Moore announced his return. Combine one of the nation’s top quarterbacks with the standard array of surrounding talent, and Oregon seemingly has every ingredient needed to take the next step under Dan Lanning. That said, we’re slightly skeptical about the new coordinators, Drew Mehringer (offense) and Chris Hampton (defense), who were internal promotions.
4. Notre Dame
The Irish didn’t deserve the final playoff spot (over Miami or Alabama) but could very well have won the tournament had they made the cut. Star tailback Jeremiyah Love is off to the NFL, but quarterback CJ Carr returns following a terrific freshman season. The offensive line is always elite, the defense should more than clear the bar and the schedule is manageable. (If anything, it’s a tad soft.)
5. Ohio State
We expect the Buckeyes to regress slightly on defense due to the loss of an unmatched collection of NFL talent. But they should be more proficient offensively given quarterback Julian Sayin’s experience and the return of receiver Jeremiah Smith, who isn’t eligible for the draft this spring (but would be the first non-quarterback selected). To that end, we’re curious who Ryan Day hires as OSU’s new playcaller.
6. LSU
Look for the Tigers to return to the national stage in the regular season after dominating the headlines during the offseason with their successful pursuits of coach Lane Kiffin and quarterback Sam Leavitt, whose work at Arizona State made him the most coveted player on the transfer market. To the Kiffin-Leavitt combination, add the No. 1 transfer class in the country. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers are still standing at this time next year.
7. Miami
One of the toughest teams to project because, as of today, the Hurricanes don’t have a quarterback secured for 2026 to replace Carson Beck. (They could sign Duke’s Darian Mensah.) Regardless of that specific issue, coach Mario Cristobal has stocked the roster with enough talent to avoid a drastic regression. Example No. 1: receiver Malachi Toney, who will return for his sophomore season.
8. Georgia
Although not nearly as dominant as they were four or five years ago, the Bulldogs remain a force in the SEC and nationally and should return to the CFP in 2026. Notably, they don’t play Texas, Texas A&M or LSU and have just two daunting road games (Alabama and Mississippi). It’s a schedule made for 10 wins, especially if they become a dash more efficient offensively.
9. Michigan
Let’s not overthink the situation: Kyle Whittingham’s style and culture, combined with Michigan’s personnel, should produce a playoff berth in Ann Arbor. It’s a match made in Maize and Blue heaven, assuming, of course, that sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood adjusts smoothly to the new playbook. If the Wolverines make the jump from very good to elite, the top of the Big Ten will be ridiculous.
10. Oklahoma
The John Mateer hype train slowed considerably after his return from injury and, if anything, might not be operating at the proper speed now that he has experienced a year of SEC competition. (We expect Mateer to be one of the nation’s best in 2026.) Assuming coach Brent Venables constructs another elite defense, the Sooners are a good bet to return to the playoff.
11. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders were not a one-hit wonder — not with their payroll — and stand as Big 12 frontrunners until proven otherwise. In fact, they might be a level better in 2026 due to the upgrade at quarterback, where Brendan Sorsby, formerly of Cincinnati, replaces Behren Morton. The added playmaking punch on offense should offset any regression on defense, where TTU loses star edge rusher David Bailey and all-everything linebacker Jacob Rodriguez.
12. Mississippi
Without clarity on the status of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who’s seeking an additional year of eligibility through the court system, it’s difficult to project the Rebels’ trajectory. This ranking is an attempt to split the difference: With Chambliss, they are well positioned for another playoff run; without him, a far tougher road awaits.
13. USC
The Hotline views 2026 as the make-or-break year for Lincoln Riley’s tenure given all the resources thrown his way in the past 12 months by the administration. To that end, the schedule is brutal with Indiana and Penn State on the road and Oregon, Ohio State and Washington at home. (But alas, no Notre Dame.) Quarterback Jayden Maiava’s return is a major boost, but we remain skeptical that Riley’s program can field a defense capable of pulling its weight on the treacherous road to the CFP.
14. Texas A&M
The Aggies managed to retain their most important pieces, coach Mike Elko and quarterback Marcel Reed, and have their sights set on returning to the CFP. But they could have two or three more losses next season due to a more challenging SEC schedule.
15. Alabama
This is our bleakest outlook for the Crimson Tide since 2008, Nick Saban’s second season. The cynicism is rooted in coach Kalen DeBoer’s inability to muster an effective running game and the resulting SEC tightrope Alabama must traverse without a balanced offense. DeBoer has promised changes. We’ll believe it when we see it.
16. BYU
As long as Kalani Sitake remains in charge and the NIL resources remain elite, the Cougars will be relevant in the Big 12. But we wonder about a noticeable regression defensively following the departure of coordinator Jay Hill, who followed his friend Kyle Whittingham to Michigan. The Cougars will need the offense, led by returning quarterback Bear Bachmeier, to operate more effectively in big games. Tailback LJ Martin’s return helps in that regard, but is it enough? Not from our vantage point.
17. Penn State
We watched Matt Campbell do more with less for a decade at Iowa State. Now, we expect Campbell to do more with more in Happy Valley. Quarterback Rocco Becht followed Campbell from Ames — as did a slew of other Cyclones — and will provide a steadying influence. That said, the Nittany Lions probably are two years from competing for the Big Ten title.
18. Houston
The rest of the Big 12 best beware of the Cougars as third-year coach Willie Fritz continues to upgrade his roster and implement his culture. In fact, the Hotline would not be the least bit surprised if Houston climbs into the conference championship, stares across the field at Texas Tech and takes that stunning final step into the CFP.
19. Utah
The new era looks a lot like the old era in Salt Lake City with longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scaly ascending to the throne and both quarterbacks (Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin) returning. We don’t expect the Utes to improve markedly in the post-Kyle Whittingham existence — they just won 11 games, after all — but nor do we expect a backslide of any significance.
20. Washington
A fascinating range of outcomes exists in Seattle, where quarterback Demond Williams’ lurch toward the transfer portal could undermine UW’s cohesion and lead to a lost season. Or the Huskies could forgive and forget and make the leap to the top tier of the Big Ten. After all, Jedd Fisch’s third year with Arizona produced 10 wins. We give history a 50-50 chance of repeating.
21. Arizona
This selection was made with a hefty dose of trepidation given Arizona’s knack for underperforming when the forecast is bright and overachieving when the outlook is dark. But the return of quarterback Noah Fifita and both coordinators, Seth Doege (offense) and Danny Gonzales (defense), provides a launch point to justify the Wildcats’ inclusion. If Gonzales can patch up a depleted secondary, Arizona should make a run at the Big 12 title.
22. SMU
Full credit to Mustangs coach Rhett Lashlee, who backed up the 2024 playoff appearance with a nine-win season and was oh-so-close to playing for another ACC title. There’s no reason to expect a backslide, especially with multi-year starting quarterback Kevin Jennings set to return.
23. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys qualify as a sleeper pick after firing Mike Gundy and losing every Big 12 game for the past two years. We view first-year coach Eric Morris as a genius-level offensive mind — those who watched North Texas will agree — who is more than capable of turning OSU into a Big 12 contender in his first season.
24. Boise State
New conference, same success. With quarterback Maddux Madsen returning as a third-year starter, Boise State enters 2026 as the clear favorite to win the rebuilt Pac-12 and make a run at the playoff. The Broncos’ postseason prospects would improve by an order-of-magnitude if they have a good showing in the season opener … at Oregon.
25. Virginia Tech
James Franklin was the perfect hire for the Hokies, and that will be perfectly clear when they complete a perfect September and emerge as a contender in the wide-open ACC.
Also considered: Arizona State, Auburn, Cal, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Iowa, James Madison, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, Navy, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Virginia
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