How a Partial Government Shutdown Over ICE Would Impact Immigration Enforcement

Following another deadly shooting in Minneapolis by federal officers over the weekend, Senate Democrats are signaling that they are willing to shut down much of the federal government rather than vote to continue funding immigration enforcement absent meaningful reforms. But even if Congress fails to pass the measure before the Friday deadline, a shutdown is unlikely to significantly deter the Trump Administration’s immigration enforcement in the short term.

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That’s because the massive domestic policy bill President Donald Trump signed last year, which he dubbed the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” made Immigration and Customs Enforcement the highest-funded law enforcement agency in the nation. Under that law, ICE received a $75 billion supplement on top of its roughly $10 billion base budget, money it could potentially tap if its annual appropriations are interrupted. The measure, enacted with no support from Democrats, set aside roughly $30 billion for operations and $45 billion for expanding detention facilities, giving ICE a deep financial cushion as lawmakers clash over its conduct.

Federal funding expires at the end of the week—at 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 31—and the House is in recess until February, leaving the Senate with few options to avoid a shutdown if it can’t pass the current measure.  

The standoff intensified over the weekend after the shooting of Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a 37-year-old Minneapolis resident and intensive care unit nurse. Multiple videos show Border Patrol agents spraying Pretti with a substance and pinning him to the ground before the shooting. Moments before the confrontation, Pretti was attempting to help a woman protester who was being pushed by a federal agent.

Following the incident, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said that Democrats would block a sweeping funding package if it includes money for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE and Customs and Border Protection.

“What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling — and unacceptable in any American city,” Schumer said in a statement, arguing that the Homeland Security funding bill was “woefully inadequate” to rein in abuses by immigration officials. He said Democrats would not provide the votes needed to advance the broader spending package if the DHS bill remained part of it.

Most legislation in the Senate requires 60 votes to move forward, leaving Republicans, who hold 53 seats, in need of some Democratic support to pass the measure, which covers about $1.3 trillion in annual government spending and includes funding for the military, social services, and several major departments. 

Read more: Here Are the States to Watch as Democrats Try to Flip the Senate

Democrats are demanding new constraints on immigration enforcement and more oversight of DHS. Some lawmakers have outlined specific demands: requiring judicial warrants for immigration arrests, beefing up agents’ training, mandating agents wear visible identification, and strengthening accountability and transparency. 

Several senators who had previously broken with their party to keep the government open said the latest shooting shifted their stance. “I have the responsibility to hold the Trump administration accountable when I see abuses of power,” said Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada, who voted last year to end the last shutdown. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, also of Nevada, said agents were “oppressing Americans” and could no longer be funded without new safeguards.

Yet even if Democrats succeed in blocking DHS funding, immigration enforcement may continue largely uninterrupted as ICE is permitted to spend the $75 billion it received under the Big Beautiful Bill over as long as four years. If disbursed steadily, that would amount to nearly $29 billion annually—almost triple its recent funding levels.

By comparison, the Trump Administration’s budget request for the entire Justice Department, including the FBI, stands at just over $35 billion.

The surge in funding has fueled a rapid expansion of ICE’s operations. The agency more than doubled its workforce last year, growing from about 10,000 to 22,000 officers and agents, and launched an aggressive recruitment drive that included signing bonuses and student loan repayment incentives. It has advertised deportation officer positions in at least 25 cities and sharply expanded its detention system.

The new law allocated $45 billion specifically to detention facilities, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem saying the agency would be able to hold up to 100,000 people in custody daily. As of mid-January, more than 73,000 people were being held in immigration detention, according to CBS News.

That growth has coincided with mounting criticism of ICE’s tactics, as viral videos have spread of masked agents detaining people in unmarked vehicles, and reports of a spike in deaths of people taken into custody. But it has also left the agency unusually insulated from the budget brinkmanship now gripping Congress.

Republicans have largely backed the Trump Administration’s approach, though cracks have emerged. Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana called the Minneapolis shooting “incredibly disturbing” and urged a joint federal-state investigation, saying the credibility of DHS and ICE was at stake. Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska called for a “prioritized, transparent investigation into this incident.” Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said that the shooting “should raise serious questions within the administration about the adequacy of immigration-enforcement training and the instructions officers are given on carrying out their mission.” Rep. Andrew Garbarino of New York, the Republican chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, has asked top DHS officials to testify.

Still, voting against the DHS funding bill may do little to curb enforcement quickly. ICE operations are generally designated essential services, meaning agents would continue to work even if a funding lapse forced furloughs elsewhere in the government. And the massive supplemental pot of funding would allow it to continue arrests, deportations, and detention at current levels for months, if not longer.

Where the shutdown threat may have more impact is politically. By tying immigration enforcement to the broader funding fight, which also includes money for the military and social services, Democrats are attempting to raise the political cost for Republicans and the Trump Administration. The pressure could force negotiations over guardrails on ICE or prompt internal reconsideration of its tactics, particularly as public scrutiny grows.