“Baseless”: Trump admin denies involvement in suspicious Iran prediction market bets

A series of well-timed prediction market bets on key foreign policy actions have raised suspicions about insider trading within the White House.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi give users the ability to bet on practically anything by purchasing “shares” in potential outcomes. Trades around crude oil futures and U.S. movement in Iran have led to questions about insiders betting on inside information.

Minutes before President Donald Trump announced his intention to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants, a spike in trades was observed. Per Axios, $580 million worth of oil futures flooded the market at 6:49 am, 16 minutes before Trump publicly revealed the pause.

This isn’t the first instance of suspicious bets in futures markets directly before a major Trump administration announcement. On Jan. 2, a Polymarket user placed a bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Similar bets were placed before Trump’s tariff pause and the start of the war in Iran.

While many of the trades seem suspicious on their face, it is extremely difficult to prove members of the government engaged in insider trading. This is because Polymarket uses blockchain technology that allows users to place bets anonymously. Still, House Democrats are preparing to launch an investigation into possible insider trading within the Trump administration.

“Insider trading by federal officials and their friends or family is not only a breach of trust of the American people and investors in our markets, but erodes the integrity of government institutions and raises concerns about corruption and fairness,” Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Rep Al Green, D-Texas wrote in a letter sent to the House’s Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill earlier this year.

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In a statement to Axios, White House spokesman Kush Desai called the implication that Trump officials were profiting off of prediction markets “baseless.”

“All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit,” he said. “However, any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”

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