Dwindling stockpiles and soaring costs: US allies struggle to contain Iranian attacks

Reports from France suggest it too is having problems with diminishing weapons stores

Senior French officials reportedly met last week to discuss an escalating shortage of air-to-air missiles being rapidly expended to intercept Iranian kamikaze drones over the United Arab Emirates.

While US President Donald Trump claims the Pentagon has an “unlimited” stockpile to pursue regime change in Tehran for as long as it takes, mounting evidence suggests Iran’s retaliation will grow more devastating over time.

Why are the French running out of missiles?

Like many US allies, France declined to join the Israeli-American bombing campaign against Iran and is only conducting ‘defensive’ operations. That includes flying combat missions over the UAE since the war began more than two weeks ago, with French Rafale fighter jets intercepting Iranian kamikaze drones.

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On Sunday, the weekly La Tribune reported a “crisis meeting” held earlier in the week over the rapid expenditure of MICA missiles used for the interceptions. Stockpiles are limited and too costly to replenish, especially compared to the Iranian weapons they take down: an older-generation MICA missile costs an estimated €600,000 ($685,000) to €700,000 ($800,000) – more than an order of magnitude more than its targets.

The French Directorate General of Armaments (DGA) is reluctant to seek cheaper replacements, as they would inevitably be less effective, the report noted. Meanwhile, MICA producer MBDA’s manufacturing capacity is constrained and difficult to expand without guaranteed purchases, creating a supply bottleneck.

What about the UAE’s own defenses?

Arab nations hosting US military bases were apparently unprepared for a long all-out war with Iran. Tehran has a history of limited retaliation for attacks against it, including during last year’s 12-day flare-up triggered by Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

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Weapons stockpiles and usage are classified, but rough estimates are possible. The Economist suggests, based on Arab governments’ reports of intercepting over 880 Iranian missiles, that at least 1,900 Patriot surface-to-air missiles were launched – possibly more if commanders fire more than two interceptors per incoming weapon. Patriot missiles, costing $3 million to $6 million each, likely account for nine out of ten interceptions, though more expensive THAAD and NASAMS systems are also used.

According to CBS News, the White House is aware of complaints that Gulf monarchies must choose which incoming drones and missiles to intercept due to shortages and has set up a task force to provide new supplies.

What about Israel?

The fog of war hangs heavy over the Jewish state, but it too reportedly faces depletion. On Sunday, Semafor said that the IDF is “running critically low” on ballistic missile interceptors, according to US officials. Israel entered the war with a stockpile already diminished by last year’s conflict, and it is unclear whether the US can deliver replenishments in time.

The Israeli government denied the report, stating the IDF is “prepared and ready to handle any scenario.”

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In the first week of the war, the Trump administration used emergency powers to expedite the sale of 12,000 BLU-110A/B 1,000-pound bombs to Israel – reportedly part of a larger weapons package worth around $650 million that was under informal Congressional review.

Did the Pentagon miscalculate?

US officials, including the president, insist Iran is on the verge of defeat and the Pentagon has a “virtually unlimited” weapons stockpile to sustain the war. The US is also moving additional assets, including costly THAAD anti-missile systems, from other regions, fueling concerns in the affected nations.

Last week, a South Korean government official assured the public that “there is no problem with deterrence against North Korea regardless of whether some USFK [US Forces Korea] assets are relocated overseas.” According to the local press, the relocation of up to 48 THAAD interceptors to the Middle East is imminent.

Iran claims it has large stockpiles of missiles and drones hidden underground and scattered nationwide and reports deploying new capabilities. If true, dwindling defensive stockpiles among its opponents are giving Tehran an edge on the escalation ladder.