Imminent collapse or primed for a long war? The experts weigh in on Iran’s prospects

While US-Israeli strikes have taken out senior Iranian officials, commanders and military capabilities, Tehran is refusing to back down

The US-Israeli war against Iran has been raging for over two weeks now, with US President Donald Trump sending out seemingly contradictory messages as to his objectives and timeline for the conflict.

The Republican at one point predicted that the conflict would be over in a matter of weeks, claiming that the Islamic Republic was on its last legs and that the US had already “won.” Days later, Trump said that “we’re not leaving until that job is finished.”

The war began on February 28, when the US and Israeli militaries launched massive airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of senior Iranian commanders. In the intervening days, aerial attacks have apparently destroyed at least some of Tehran’s military capabilities.

According to the Iranian authorities, more than 1,300 civilians have been killed in those strikes. On the first day of the US-Israeli military campaign alone, a suspected US Tomahawk cruise missile struck the Shajarah Tayyebeh girls’ school, killing at least 175 people, most of them children.

Read more

Despite the death and destruction inflicted on the country, Iran has elected a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has vowed to continue fighting until the “blood of the martyrs” has been fully avenged.

Earlier this week, Politico claimed that the Pentagon was gearing up for at least another 100 days of war and that it could even last through September.

Experts have offered widely differing predictions as to the potential timeline and outcomes of the conflict. RT has summarized some of them for you.

Iran’s days are numbered

Sergey Balmasov from Russia’s Institute of the Middle East contends that the US and Israel have been systematically taking out key government and leadership elements and will likely “force Tehran into negotiations” within a week. According to the expert, much of Iran’s military muscle, including missile launchers and arms depots, will be destroyed in the coming days.

“Iran has no allies in the region, so it’s unlikely that anyone will get directly involved” in the conflict, Balmasov argues.

However, he adds that should the hostilities continue beyond that point, Trump would still not back down. Balmasov says that the US president desperately needs to secure an apparent victory to sell at home before the upcoming midterm elections.

A matter of definition

Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council concurs that the US and Israel will likely seriously degrade Iran’s military capabilities, as well as its nuclear program in the coming weeks. The question is whether Trump will be content to declare victory once these objectives have been achieved, or would he go after regime change in Iran. The latter scenario is much more difficult to attain, with success far from being guaranteed, Kroenig predicts.

Read more

Iran doesn’t seek quick end to war

Nate Swanson, a resident senior fellow and director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, notes that the “Iranian regime perceives that it is in an existential conflict, and it does not appear to be interested in an immediate off-ramp.” He suggests that an “assumption among some in Washington that Iran will stop fighting when Trump and Israel want to end this war” may be deeply erroneous.

“From Iran’s perspective, a cessation of hostilities would merely be a temporary respite, before the United States or Israel restarts the conflict once they have replenished their military supplies,” according to the expert.

He claims that Tehran would likely pursue a “slow, protracted war of attrition,” counting on its higher pain threshold as opposed to the US or Gulf countries. According to Swanson, for Iran to agree to an “off-ramp,” it would first want to ensure that the US is willing to enforce a ceasefire in good faith even if its key ally, Israel, does not agree.

Or does it…?

Andrew L. Peek, the director of the Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, by contrast, suggests that Tehran would be happy to end the war as soon as possible, and “will eventually return to business as usual.”

Read more

It’ll all be over in weeks

Russian political scientist Malek Dudakov predicts that the US-Israeli war against Iran will likely fizzle out within three to four weeks, amid growing domestic pressure faced by Trump. The expert points out that the US president initiated the military campaign without Congressional authorization, which legally gives him a little over a month to achieve his goals. On top of that, the war is largely unpopular among Americans, including in part of the MAGA camp – a factor further compounded by rising oil prices, Dudakov says. Should Trump persist in waging war on Iran beyond that point, the consequences for him could be dire.