‘Not the moment’: Key Republican dims Trump’s hopes of making Nebraska winner-take-all

LINCOLN — The Republican push to change how Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes and boost former President Donald Trump ran into political reality Monday as a key lawmaker, State Sen. Mike McDonnell, announced he won’t support the change.

McDonnell, of Omaha, said he had heard from people passionate about the issue who live in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District. But he said he did not hear enough to move him off his original position against the switch.

“Elections should be an opportunity for all voters to be heard, no matter who they are, where they live, or what party they support,” McDonnell said in a statement. “I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”

McDonnell said he told Gov. Jim Pillen his stance and suggested that the Legislature put winner-take-all to a vote of the people, as a proposed constitutional amendment, so people can decide the issue “once and for all.”

Nebraska and Maine are the only states that award a single Electoral College vote to the winner in each congressional district, plus two votes to the statewide winner of the presidential popular vote. Nebraska has split off votes twice in four presidential elections.

Trump spoke to Nebraska senator during Pillen’s winner-take-all meeting

President Joe Biden won the 2nd District in 2020. Trump won all five of the state’s electoral votes in 2016. Mitt Romney did the same in 2012. The 2nd District got its national name as “the blue dot” in 2008, when former President Barack Obama won it.

2nd District split

Nebraska Republicans have argued for years that Nebraska should award all five of its electoral votes to the statewide winner of the presidential popular vote, a process many call winner-take-all.

Republicans hold a 2-to-1 voter registration advantage over Democrats statewide, but the 2nd District cuts much more evenly between Republicans, Democrats and registered nonpartisans, a split that makes the 2nd District competitive in national elections.

Pillen had pledged to call a special session if he could secure the 33 votes needed to overcome a filibuster to change to winner-take-all. All five of Nebraska’s GOP congressional delegates wrote a letter urging state lawmakers to pass such a move.

The Nebraska Legislature has 33 Republicans, 15 Democrats and one progressive who is a registered nonpartisan. People whipping votes for Pillen and the Trump campaign have told others they expected the remaining GOP holdouts to join the push for the change if McDonnell did.

Pillen’s office had no immediate comment Monday, nor did the Trump or Harris campaigns.

McDonnell’s no on winner-take-all leaves Republicans in Nebraska’s officially nonpartisan Legislature with no path to overcoming a promised filibuster unless a Democrat or nonpartisan senator defects. Thus far, none has opposed the status quo.

Winner-take-all push gets help of Gov. Jim Pillen, Sen. Lindsey Graham, Trump

Part of the GOP urgency is wrapped in national polling that shows a close race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. Some political observers have argued the 2nd District could break a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

Few Democrats were surprised that the fate of winner-take-all largely swung on McDonnell, a former Omaha fire union president who switched to the GOP this spring after facing political pushback from Democrats for backing abortion restrictions.

Several said the abortion debate should have shown Republicans that McDonnell is largely immovable once he has made a controversial position clear. McDonnell said when he switched parties that he would not support winner-take-all. Others said he did what helped him most politically.

McDonnell’s stance softened in recent weeks under pressure from local, state and national Republicans, including some with ties to the Trump campaign. He was one of two dozen GOP state senators who met Sept. 18 with Pillen and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

Both sides heard from

People in the room said McDonnell told GOP colleagues last week he was looking for a way to get to yes. McDonnell told the Examiner on Thursday, not long after the meeting discussion became public, that he remained a no on winner-take-all, “as of today.”

He kept meeting and talking with people on both sides of the issue, including people tied to Trump, after that statement. He also heard from national and local Democrats tied to Harris.

But on Monday, McDonnell seemed to want to put the issue to rest. And with it, he may have secured one more election where a small slice of Nebraska will matter to both presidential campaigns.

Sen. Mike McDonnell says he’s a no on winner-take-all ’as of today’

Both Trump and Harris have campaign staff in Nebraska, and both have sent surrogates to campaign here. Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Nebraska native, held a rally here. Trump’s running mate, Ohio U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, came to Nebraska to fundraise and meet with local Republicans.

For McDonnell, the calculus could be partly political. He has openly flirted with running for mayor of Omaha as early as 2025. His likely opponent, Republican incumbent Jean Stothert, has said she supports the switch to winner-take-all.

Statewide support leans toward winner-take-all, but polling over several years indicates broad, bipartisan support in the 2nd District for keeping the state’s unusual system, which brings attention and money to the Omaha area.

McDonnell’s statement acknowledged the impact on the district.

“For Omaha … it brings tremendous national attention, is impactful on our local economy and forces Presidential candidates to make their case to all Nebraskans, instead of just flying over and disregarding us,” he said.

Praised for ‘standing strong’

Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, praised McDonnell for “standing strong against tremendous pressure from out-of-state interests to protect Nebraskans’ voice in our democracy.”

“Nebraska has a long and proud tradition of independence, and our electoral system reflects that by ensuring that the outcome of our elections truly represents the will of the people without interference,” Kleeb said.

Kleeb also said the party would support leaders “who stand up for the people,” which some interpreted as a hint that the door might be cracked open for McDonnell to return or to secure some form of support from the party if he runs for office in the future.

The Nebraska Republican Party had no immediate comment.