NFL QB Rankings, Week 2: Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson race to the bottom

And the numbers tell us Russell Wilson is playing like a top five quarterback (and thus make us doubt the numbers).

Week 2 marked Tua Tagovailoa’s ascension to betting favorite in the 2023 NFL MVP race. The advanced stats agree — albeit across a small sample size.

Tagovailoa has been this season’s most efficient quarterback, even after the New England Patriots knocked him off his torrid Week 1 pace in a 24-17 Miami victory Sunday night. While that’s a bit of a surprise, it may not be as shocking as the quarterbacks who sit in third and fourth place through two games: 1-1 Jimmy Garoppolo and the man he beat to get that lone win, Russell Wilson.

So yes, the data isn’t quite bulletproof as we use advanced stats to get a better picture of which quarterbacks are outplaying expectations this fall. Garoppolo’s short-pass, risk-averse style has always performed well in terms of expected points added (EPA), and after getting a boost from the San Francisco 49ers’ core of playmaking targets he’s now got a rocket in the form of Davante Adams strapped to him. Garoppolo had just a 40.9 passer rating when targeting any Raiders not named Adams and threw two interceptions on short passes intended for his running backs. He doesn’t belong here.

Neither does Wilson, whose cold finishes have left the Broncos foundering once again. No quarterback in the league is more efficient in the first two quarters of the game, where the veteran’s 0.628 EPA/play is by far the best in the league. In the final two quarters that number drops to -0.081: 24th-best among starters.

Let’s talk about these stats. EPA is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength, considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is CPOE, which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 32 snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 — you get a chart that looks like this:

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this (plus whatever Jordan Love is doing in the upper left corner):

With a slightly larger sample size at play, this week’s rankings will sort this year’s qualified quarterbacks by a composite of their EPA and CPOE scores. Tua Tagovailoa stands at the top. Zach Wilson is the anchor at the bottom. Here’s how each passer sorts out in between.