Before The Snap: Will it be the SEC vs. the Big Ten in the College Football Playoff’s 1st rankings?
Breaking down the College Football Playoff picture before the first set of rankings debut.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
If you look right now at which teams have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff, it’s pretty clearly a battle between the SEC and the Big Ten with Clemson floating around in there.
The first set of playoff rankings are set to drop next week, so we’ll get our first official glimpse into how the committee views this season so far.
Could the Big Ten have two teams among the top-4? Could the SEC have three?? Undefeated Clemson’s had some close calls this season, so will those be held against the Tigers?
With Alabama off in Week 9, the answer to some of those questions could depend on how Ohio State handles Penn State on the road and if Tennessee can remain undefeated against a good Kentucky squad.
A lot can change between the opening rankings and the end of the regular season, so for now, we’re relying on ESPN’s Playoff Predictor formula for what teams have the best chances to make the playoff.
Going into Week 9’s matchups, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0)
- Playoff: 80.5 percent
- National championship game: 51.6 percent
- Win championship: 30.3 percent
2. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0)
- Playoff: 68.7 percent
- National championship game: 42.0 percent
- Win championship: 23.3 percent
3. Clemson Tigers (8-0)
- Playoff: 62.1 percent
- National championship game: 21.7 percent
- Win championship: 7.6 percent
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
- Playoff: 53.8 percent
- National championship game: 34.2 percent
- Win championship: 19.5 percent
5. Tennessee Volunteers (7-0)
- Playoff: 51.6 percent
- National championship game: 20.6 percent
- Win championship: 7.5 percent
6. Michigan Wolverines (7-0)
- Playoff: 49.2 percent
- National championship game: 21.1 percent
- Win championship: 8.9 percent
There’s a pretty sizable drop-off here between Michigan with nearly a 50 percent chance to make it and USC at less than 10 percent. So at least from this view, it largely seems like a battle between the SEC and Big Ten.
However, an upset against one of these top teams (or another one, in Alabama’s case), could make room for a one-loss Pac-12 champion or potentially an undefeated Big 12 champion. But right now, it seems unlikely either conference gets a team in the playoff without some outside help.
7. USC Trojans (6-1)
- Playoff: 9.7 percent
- National championship game: 2.6 percent
- Win championship: 0.9 percent
8. TCU Horned Frogs (7-0)
- Playoff: 7.6 percent
- National championship game: 1.8 percent
- Win championship: 0.6 percent
9. Oregon Ducks (6-1)
- Playoff: 4.9 percent
- National championship game: 1.2 percent
- Win championship: 0.4 percent
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1)
- Playoff: 3.5 percent
- National championship game: 0.9 percent
- Win championship: 0.3 percent