The Celtics are really impressive but don't be so fast to bet on a sweep against Kevin Durant
There's good value on a sweep. But bet at your own risk.
You don’t need me to tell you Kevin Durant has struggled through two games of the Brooklyn Nets’ playoff series against the Boston Celtics, and the Nets won’t win a single game if he doesn’t play better.
Durant is shooting a paltry 32% from the field – including 0-for-10 in the second half of Game 2 on Wednesday – with 12 turnovers. He’s looked as human as we’ve ever seen him look on a basketball court, and much of it is due to a Boston defense that has been amazing all season.
For those who expect this to continue when the series moves to Brooklyn on Saturday, now is the time to put your bets in. Odds that Boston gets the sweep are +450 on Tipico Sportsbook. But I must warn you: it’s probably not a wise decision to bet against Durant.
It’s easy to come away from the first two games of this series thinking the Nets are outmatched. And they very well may be. If you originally thought Brooklyn would win in seven (+600 odds) and are now leaning towards Boston in six (+320) or seven (+425), that’s reasonable. But we should pump the brakes on any talk about a sweep.
The thing about playoff series is teams make adjustments, some get hot, others go cold and superstar players eventually make plays. We’ve seen teams dominate at home just to go on the road and get dominated. It’s important not to get swept up in the latest before putting money on something…unless you truly believe it. And I’m having a hard time believing the Nets won’t win at least twice.
I was stunned at how much KD struggled in Game 2, and even after seeing it, I’d be just as stunned if it happens again. Durant didn’t become known as one of the best scorers in the history of the NBA by letting good defenses stop him. As good as Boston was, he missed shots we’ve seen him make before. This isn’t new to Durant.
“Two or three guys hit me wherever I go,” Durant said after the game. “And that’s just the nature of the beast in the playoffs. I feel like I got a couple good shots there in the fourth that just didn’t go down…”
There’s a precedent to believe he’ll bounce back. Only once in his playoff career has Durant shot worse than 38% in three straight games (2018 vs. Houston). And despite being down 0-2 in a series three times in his career, he’s never gone down 0-3. Each time, it was a series that started on the road and included at least one game below his standard of excellence. And each time, his teams went on to win not once, but at least the next two games. In the 2012 Western Conference Finals, his Thunder won the next four straight.
It’s said that role players are more reliable in home playoff games, but the Nets’ others actually showed up in Boston. The only thing missing was Durant. If he shows up at home, Brooklyn has a good chance to get a couple wins and maybe even make it a series again.
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