Duke's Mark Williams is the breakout star of March Madness, and he could become a top 10 pick
Duke's Mark Williams is one player you need to pay attention to during the Final Four.
Although Duke’s Paolo Banchero gets more attention, sophomore big man Mark Williams is one player you need to pay attention to during the Final Four.
After moving into the starting lineup for the Blue Devils as a freshman last season, Williams impressed while stepping into a larger role. There were very high expectations for Williams coming into his second collegiate campaign, and I think he exceeded them at every stop.
Williams is one of the players who impressed me most during the first weekend of March Madness. However, since then, he has only become more and more dominant. Although I projected him in the lottery in my latest mock draft, he has earned even more fans around the league since then.
He leads the tournament in total dunks (13) recorded thus far, and some of the looks are so ferocious that defenders are assuredly still terrified. Overall, he is shooting an absurd 22-for-24 (91.7%) at the rim during March Madness.
But unlike previous tournament darlings like UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, he is doing things he has always done, and it’s not just a hot run. Among the nearly 2,000 players to finish at least 200 possessions this season, per Synergy, Williams is the most efficient (1.31 PPP) player in all of college basketball.
From an offensive perspective, the big man has good touch on his free throws (86th percentile among big men), which means that his jumper could develop well as he progresses.
He also fares well in advanced metrics like box plus-minus. He does this while maintaining a very low usage rate, suggesting that his game can translate well to the pros. As we have seen during his time playing alongside future pros at Duke, Williams doesn’t need the offense to run through him for him to make a positive impact on the game. Williams is a pro-ready big man in every sense of the word.
One thing that excites me about Williams is that he rarely makes mistakes. He currently has the second-lowest turnover percentage (12.2%) among 7-footers in college basketball.
Since 2008, Zion Williamson and Jaxson Hayes (who was selected No. 8 overall in the 2019 NBA draft) are the only other high-major underclassman with a turnover rate below 18.0% to record an effective field goal percentage above 70.0% in the same season.
Williams also shows intelligence on the other end of the floor, as he rarely commits fouls.
His block-to-foul ratio (1.4) ranked fourth-best throughout the full season among all high-major players who logged at least 150 minutes. Then, that rate (2.7) has been even better during the tournament. Duke seldom sent opponents to the free-throw line in the minutes Williams was on the floor, and their defense has allowed the second-lowest free-throw rate in college basketball.
On defense, Williams is one of the most productive contributors that we have seen in college basketball.
Before this season, only four players had a defensive rebound percentage above 20%, block percentage above 10%, and overall box plus-minus above 11.5 throughout their college careers: Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, and Anthony Davis. None were selected below the No. 6 overall pick in the NBA draft, and Williams has now reached those elite thresholds.
I’m not suggesting Williams will have the same type of career that Towns, Embiid, and Davis have had. But he has all the makings of someone who will be a good pro in the NBA.