A betting guide to why the Bengals will (or won't) win the Super Bowl

When the Zac Taylor era began in Cincinnati, many had fair questions about his acumen as a coach.

Was this 38-year-old hotshot autonomous, and did he have the proper initiative as the Rams’ former quarterback coach? Or was he more a product of the (reasonable) Sean McVay hype wave that swept through the NFL? Could he be trusted to develop a No. 1 overall pick quarterback, perhaps the most valuable asset in pro football, or would he leave him gasping for air because of his own inexperience?

Two years later, the Bengals and that No. 1 pick, Joe Burrow, are knocking on the door of the Super Bowl. While they had their pitfalls and obstacles to overcome the way anyone does, going from the very worst to the NFL’s de facto final four is quite the accomplishment. That it was Joe Burrow’s first full season as a starter has to make those who live near the Ohio River quite hopeful for the future.

Because of this rapid ascent, no one’s going to question the Taylor hire anymore. (For now, anyway).

Here’s why the Bengals are destined for Super Bowl glory in three weeks in SoCal. I swear I’ll stop making the terrible California locale name jokes. Eventually.

How they got here

I will be candid and straightforward: The Bengals got to the AFC Championship because they sling the dang ball. And they sling the dang ball like almost no one else.

While the Bengals and Burrow’s arm may have only averaged just under 33 pass attempts (20th in the league) per game, Burrow was first in the league in average yards per attempt at 8.9. Burrow was also 10th in the league in intended air yards, meaning he often took shots downfield rather than relying on his receivers to make plays.

And that open mandate for a second-year quarterback paid off for Cincinnati. Only the Seahawks created more “big plays” on offense (anything 25 yards or more). Yes, even the Tom Bradys and Aaron Rodgers of the world couldn’t match Burrow this year.

Aside from an offense predicated on challenging defenses downfield, one addition paid off for the Bengals in particular.

That was the rookie receiver, Ja’Marr Chase.

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Now look, I’m not going to discredit Burrow by any stretch of the imagination. Someone does have to get the ball where it has to go, after all, and it’s better when it’s a former college teammate. But the Bengals would not be playing at the end of January without Chase. It’s a fundamental fact.

Chase was so good and exceptional as a rookie that he drew comparisons to one Randy Moss (during his time with the Vikings). And for a good reason.

How many guys are going to have five 100-yard+ games, including two 200+ efforts, along with 645 yards after the catch (third in the league) when they’ve barely learned how to diagnose a defense’s coverage?

How many will be named a Second-Team All-Pro as a rookie?

How many have such a presence that the serious attention they draw allows other talented receivers like Tee Higgins to break out simultaneously?

How many 21-year-old’s are going to have two back-to-back 100-yard+ playoff games where they are the sole focus of the other playoff team?

Not many, I would imagine, but you’re always free to disagree with a detailed rationale.

Tipico Sportsbook currently has Chase at -250 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and frankly, that seems like a very, very safe bet.

Without Chase, it’s not only hard to imagine that the Bengals ever sweep Lamar Jackson’s Ravens and their long-time tormentors in the Steelers, but that they also shock their AFC title opponent, the Chiefs, about a month ago.

He’s a special player with a special quarterback in an electric offense. Thanks to them, one could easily assume this won’t be the last time they play for the AFC title.

How they’ll win the Super Bowl

Football’s a simple game, and there’s no need to overanalyze:

Get the ball to your best players.

Let’s emphasize it: Get. The. Ball. To. Your. Best. Players.

The Bengals’ best player is Chase, who had 18 total targets in Cincinnati’s wins over the Titans and Raiders. If he doesn’t touch the ball in the realm of 8-10 times against a juggernaut like Kansas City, the Bengals will lose, full stop.

If he does, who knows, maybe he goes off for something like, I don’t know, 266 yards and three touchdowns again?

Cincinnati will need the same diet against either of the disciplined Rams or 49ers defenses if they pull off the upset. Do they have to “Chase” a championship? Huh, huh? Oh, that didn’t feel good.

Why they won’t

During one of the more thrilling Bengals’ postseason wins ever against the Titans, you might have noticed how they had to almost literally peel Burrow off the turf.

Officially, Tennessee hit Burrow 13 times en route to nine sacks.

Dear Reader, that is a lot. That is more typical of a three-game effort for any good defense.

If the Bengals fall to the Chiefs, or in three weeks to an NFC opponent, it’ll have been because their turnstile offensive line (and I’m being kind with that descriptor) couldn’t protect Burrow. If you thought the quarterback who suffered from the league’s worst-sack rate by far (3.5 per game) was remarkable in keeping Cincy afloat in the first two rounds of the playoffs, you might consider him a football god if manages it two more times.

But if the Bengals fall behind to the Chiefs, especially early, that doesn’t bode well against a terrific pass rush of Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Melvin Ingram. Bridge the gap here and it’s easy to see why bettors with Tipico have Cincinnati’s odds to win the Super Bowl at a modest +750 (easily the worst among the final four).

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Explosive, fun offense is one aspect of football. At a certain point in the postseason, you either keep your quarterback upright or you go golfing. Like a relentless Michael Myers, awful offensive line play almost always comes back to haunt you. I don’t know who the Bengals’ Laurie Strode is, but “he’s” going to keep coming whether they like it or not.

You can’t hide from an inept offensive line. Barring a terrific Chase performance or two (not out of the question!), chances are the Bengals will see what it really means to be strong up front soon enough.

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