Bolivia leader seeks 19-year rule via tense referendum
Bolivians vote Sunday on whether to let their first indigenous president Evo Morales extend his term to 19 years, in a divisive referendum marred by corruption allegations and deadly violence.
Morales, a 56-year-old Aymara Indian, grew up in a home without running water but rose to become Bolivia's longest-serving president.
He is acclaimed for expanding the economy of Bolivia, a major gas and mineral producer but one of South America's poorest countries.
He has won three elections but now for the first time in his decade-long rule he looks at risk of losing a vote.
Until recently, polls had shown voters evenly divided in the referendum on whether to let Morales run for a fourth term that could keep him in office until 2025.
But allegations that he used his position to get a top job for his ex-girlfriend appear to have turned the tide against him.
Recent polls showed 47 percent support for a No vote against 27 percent for Yes.
- Corruption allegations -
Morales's opponents have accused him of influence-peddling linked to Chinese construction firm CAMC.
His ex-girlfriend Gabriela Zapata holds a top post in the company, which won multimillion-dollar contracts with Bolivia.
Morales has rejected the allegations as "a hoax by the US embassy" to discredit him.
He said he has "nothing to hide."
To clear his name he asked authorities to investigate the contracts, worth $576 million.
Political tension rose further ahead of the vote when attackers on Wednesday raided an opposition-run city hall and torched it, causing six people to die from smoke inhalation.
Morales's opponents blamed the attack on members of his Movement For Socialism party.
A separate scandal has erupted over alleged corruption by MAS leaders in the running of a development fund meant to benefit the indigenous community.
- Economic record -
In the face of the scandals, Morales has touted his economic success.
Despite plunging prices for its oil and gas, Bolivia's economy grew 4.8 percent last year.
That was one of the strongest rates in Latin America, much of which is suffering from a fall in the price of commodity exports.
Bolivia is forecasting steady growth of five percent overall over the next five years.
It has had to slightly lower the outlook due to a fall in the price of the gas it sells to its giant neighbors Brazil and Argentina.
Political scientist Marcelo Varnoux reckoned Morales' economic line "has not been strong enough to convince people, because his leadership has been glorified with lies."
- Pushing term limits -
Morales took office on January 22, 2006, becoming Bolivia's first indigenous head of state after centuries of discrimination.
With the opposition riven by infighting, he has won strongly in the past three presidential elections: 54 percent of the vote in 2005, 64 percent in 2009 and 61 percent in 2014.
A new constitution adopted in 2009 imposed a limit of one reelection for sitting presidents, but the Supreme Court ruled that Morales' first term was exempt -- clearing the way for him to run again in 2014.
His current term ends in 2020, but the referendum could amend the constitution and enable him to serve until 2025.
Political scientist Carlos Cordero forecast the No would win by a strong margin.
"When a leadership exceeds two terms, it becomes opaque," he said. "It resists oversight and that opens the door to corruption."
Morales had acknowledged the risk of losing the referendum but hardened his tone in the run-up to the vote.
"On Sunday we will win big," he said. "The people will decide and there will be a lot to celebrate."