‘It all suggests…’ – The Athletic journo crunches the numbers to assess Liverpool’s title chances
One journalist has crunched the numbers to produce an assessment of Liverpool’s prospects of winning the Premier League this season.
Approaching the midway point of the campaign, the Reds are in second place, one point adrift of leaders Arsenal, who come to Anfield on Saturday evening in a game which could have a big say in the title chances of both teams.
In a collaborative article for The Athletic in which several reporters analysed the likelihood of Jurgen Klopp’s side dethroning Manchester City, Andy Jones looked at the team’s performance figures from this term in comparison to title-winning sides of the last 10 years, with the help of calculations from Opta.
His analysis showed that Liverpool are ‘behind the curve’ when it comes to their projected points total (85) versus the average of champions since 2013/14 (91), while also being on track to collect fewer wins (25 to 29), score fewer goals (80 to 89) and concede more (34 to 31.2).
Jones did add that ‘there are caveats’ from recent title winners posting ‘abnormally high points tallies’, but concluded: “It all suggests it could be a year too soon for Liverpool 2.0. But they should be good enough to be in the hunt, at least”.
No two seasons are the same, so a points total in the mid to high 80s may well be enough to win the Premier League next May, although the data over a 10-year period offers a fair projection of the targets Liverpool must privately set themselves if they want to reclaim the trophy they won at a canter in 2020.
The one area where the Reds are outperforming the decade-long trend for champions is in terms of defeats, with Jones’ analysis showing that we’re on course to lose only two games this term, half of the average of four.
However, across 2018/19 and 2021/22, we suffered three league losses combined, yet still only finished second in both seasons, so the ability to turn draws into wins is the more telling factor.
In that regard, Liverpool are at risk of falling short again in 2023/24. We’ve already dropped points in six top-flight games out of 17, one more than Arsenal and Aston Villa, while an improvement will be needed on four away wins out of nine thus far.
The Reds are firmly in the mix, and should continue to be if they can maintain the standards they’ve shown up to this point, but it’ll likely take a bigger push from now until May to cross that all-important divide between gallant contenders and eventual champions.
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