Tensions with Iran spotlight Israel's hidden nuclear arsenal

An Israeli official alluded to the country's undeclared nuclear arsenal after Iran's UN mission threatened Israel over war with Hezbollah.

• Israel is one of the world's few countries armed with nukes and multiple means to deliver them.
• An Israeli aerospace official recently broached these "doomsday weapons."
• "Israel's triad remains remarkably powerful for a country its size," an aviation expert said.

The prospect of a full-scale war between Israel and the powerful Hezbollah militia in Lebanon has sent tensions spiking and briefly highlighted the power of Israel's undeclared nuclear weapons.

Israel is one of the world's few countries armed with nukes and multiple means to deliver them, a capability recently referenced by an Israeli official with a leading government-run aerospace manufacturer.

"If we understand that there is an existential danger here, and that Iran, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and all the countries of the Middle East decide that it is time to settle against us, I understand that we have the capabilities to use doomsday weapons," Yair Katz, chairman of the Israel Aerospace Industries Workers' Council, reportedly said on Saturday.

He was speaking a day after Iran's United Nations mission warned that "an obliterating war will ensue" if Israel commits "full-scale military aggression" against the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. It also declared that in this scenario, "all options" are on the table, including "the full involvement of all resistance fronts," a clear reference to Iran's militia proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the other countries Katz specifically mentioned.

By invoking doomsday weapons, it was clear Katz was alluding to Israel's nuclear weapons arsenal — an arsenal over which neither he nor IAI have any command-and-control. But his use of the word "capabilities" is a reminder that Israel has ground, air, and sea-based delivery systems for its nuclear weapons. In other words, a complete nuclear triad.

There are eight countries in the world with declared nuclear arsenals, four of which — the United States, China, India, and Russia — have a complete nuclear triad. Pakistan has a partial triad, making it a close fifth. Israel's triad has some notable distinctions and limitations compared to those of the other four.

"Israel's nuclear triad bears the hallmarks of a regional nuclear triad as seen in India and Pakistan, rather than seeking globe-spanning strike capability," Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist, told Business Insider.

"Ballistic missile submarines with submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers are unnecessary, even though Israel does face some range and geography complications vis-a-vis Iran in particular," Roblin said. "So, like Pakistan, Israel can rely on fighters, conventionally powered submarines, and submarine-launched cruise missiles for what it's trying to do."

"Israel's triad remains remarkably powerful for a country its size."

Experts believe Israel has three main delivery systems for its nuclear warheads. Israel has ground-based Jericho 3 intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Built by Israel Aerospace Industries, these IRBMs are capable of hitting targets at least 3,000 miles away. Israel also has German-built Dolphin 2 diesel-electric submarines widely believed to carry nuclear-armed Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, which can strike targets up to 930 miles away and purportedly have a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead. That modest submarine fleet gives Israel a second-strike capability in case its ground-based Jerichos are destroyed in an enemy first strike. And its fighter jets can drop nuclear bombs.

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, noted that one primary way Israel's nuclear triad differs from its counterparts is its regional focus.

"Israel's nuclear deterrent is not designed to ward off great powers like Russia or China, but rather regional powers like Egypt and Iran," Bohl told BI. "Should it ever face a great power nuclear confrontation that would inevitably drag in the United States, which is certainly better equipped to handle such a thing."

"Israel does have purported capabilities for intercontinental ballistic missiles that would allow limited strikes extra-regionally, but again, none of these would have the impact of a great power," Bohl said.

"From what is known about the Jericho systems, they are both silo and land-based, but the reality is that all such land-based systems are vulnerable to first strikes, which is a key reason why the Israelis keep the triad," Bohl said.

The Israeli Air Force's fighter jets also play a role in the triad.

"Most believe specific IAF F-16 and F-15I Ra'am units have been assigned nuclear roles, with the latter fighters with their greater range and payload taking on added importance in the event of a long-distance war with Iran," Roblin said.

Israel also boasts a sizable fleet of fifth-generation F-35I stealth jets, which are more capable of penetrating enemy air defenses to destroy strategic targets. It's unclear if Israel's F-35s can currently carry nuclear payloads.

Roblin noted the US Air Force only recently certified the F-35A for nuclear missions.

"Whether and how Israel has integrated nuclear arms into its customized F-35Is is another mystery box," Roblin said. "Though I assume they will eventually assume a nuclear role if they haven't already —--they are just so much more survivable for delivery of gravity or glide bombs."

Israeli jets can also fire Popeye cruise missiles for standoff strikes. Israel has developed several air-launched ballistic missiles, some of which it used in a strike against central Iran in April. However, it's unclear if Israel has air-launched ballistic missiles fitted with nuclear warheads.

"The main challenge for making these nuclear-capable is Israel's capacity to miniaturize nuclear warheads vis-a-vis how heavy a warhead a given missile can carry," Roblin said. "So, weapons that support bigger warheads are easier to convert."

The IAF had nuclear gravity bombs as far back as 1973. Roblin pointed out that the US has "invested billions" in turning its B61 nuclear bombs into nuclear bunker busters. He suspects Israel could have undertaken a similar project.

"If Israel has more ambitious counterforce intentions for its air-based nukes, as in hoping they could be used to reliably destroy enemy nuclear missile silos and storage areas, then perhaps it has quietly developed its equivalent of the US's new B61s, say based around the SPICE glide bomb kit," Roblin said.

While extensive for a state Israel's size, RANE's Bohl highlighted some limitations of the Israeli triad, noting that Israel's true strength lies in having Washington's back.

"Israel's limitations are in part its relatively limited arsenal and more constrained systems for deployment beyond the region," Bohl said. "But within the region, Israel is certainly unsurpassed in its nuclear capabilities."

"Given that the United States would serve as a nuclear umbrella for Israel for extra-regional threats, these limitations are certainly nothing that constrains Israel's nuclear deterrent from its primary targets like Iran," Bohl added.

The RANE analyst also noted that the US's own forces represent a much more dangerous retaliation threat than Israel's submarines for any country that considers striking Israel with nukes.

"The true second strike threat for Israel is the United States itself, which in a theoretical nuclear war scenario would almost certainly retaliate on Israel's behalf should it ever suffer a first strike from a nuclear rival," Bohl said. "This makes it so that a second strike capability is important in terms of deterrence for full-scale escalation from a power like Iran."

"But from a strictly tactical perspective, it would be the United States that truly serves as Israel's most effective second strike system."