United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year as industry faces worst shock since COVID
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has delivered the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, and United is bracing for a future where oil prices remain high through 2027.
Not only has the price of oil soared, air traffic to key Middle East airport hubs has been disrupted, forcing planes to take alternate routes that burn more fuel.
In a letter to employees posted on Friday, CEO Scott Kirby pointed out that jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks, representing an additional $11 billion in annual costs if prices stay at that level.
United spent $11.4 billion last year on fuel, meaning current prices could send that total expense past $20 billion this year. The carrier reported adjusted net income of $3.5 billion for 2025, and Kirby noted that its best year ever saw earnings of $5 billion.
But United’s cash position, profit margins, and balance sheet are healthy, while demand remains strong, he added. In fact, the last 10 weeks have seen United’s 10 biggest booked revenue weeks in its history.
Still, he acknowledged it will be difficult for United to continue passing on the cost of fuel if oil stays higher for longer, revealing that the airline’s plans assume oil hits $175 a barrel and doesn’t go back down to $100 until the end of 2027.
On Friday, Brent crude rose 3.26% to close at $112.19 per barrel, and U.S. oil gained 2.27% to settle at $98.32. But the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, remains largely closed, and analysts have warned that prices could reach $150 or even $200 a barrel if it doesn’t reopen soon.
Jet fuel prices have surged even more due to tighter refining constraints. Northwest Europe has seen record highs near $239 a barrel, and Asian jet fuel prices are near $200 a barrel, close to recent highs.
While Kirby thinks “there’s a good chance” that United’s scenario won’t be realized, he also said capacity will come down in certain times and places.
That means fewer flights in off-peak times, such as redeyes as well as Tuesday, Wednesday, and Saturday trips during the second and third quarters. United’s will also trim capacity in the Chicago O’Hare airport hub and will pull service from Tel Aviv and Dubai, which are still being bombarded by Iran.
The combined effect of the changes will be about 5 percentage points of capacity, though United plans to restore the full schedule in the fall.
“To be clear, nothing changes about our longer-term plans for aircraft deliveries or total capacity for 2027 and beyond, but there’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs,” Kirby said.
At the same time, he vowed to avoid furloughing employees, deferring aircraft orders, downgrading to regional jets, going through cost cutting exercises, and delaying investments. United still plans to take delivery of about 120 new aircraft this year, the CEO said.
More dollars will go into tech and facilities, such as the airline’s clubs, new infrastructure at hubs, and an expansion at the Newark airport.
Kirby dismissed cost cuts and investment deferrals as “small dollars at best, they’re distracting, they aren’t necessary for United and they deter us from our mission to build the best airline in the history of aviation.”
Other airlines are making contingency plans too. Scandinavian airline SAS said it will cancel around 1,000 flights because of rising fuel prices.
For Air France-KLM, plans include cutting service to parts of Asia if fuel costs for return trips to Europe become more difficult.
“Southeast Asia is much more dependent on fuel coming over the Gulf than Europe is,” CEO Ben Smith told the Financial Times. “We can get fuel out of Europe, but when we go to [a] south-east Asian city we’re not going to be able to fly the plane back . . . If there’s no fuel, you can’t fly.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com