Playoff Matchups: Scipio's Early Thoughs + Poll
Introduction
The seeding in the Western Conference has settled in except possibly for 4-5 and 8th. Which team finishes 4 or 5 affects no other matchup, only establishing home court in their series. As far as 8th is concerned the recent POR-DEN trade of big men appears to have helped POR more than DEN. In addition, DEN has a substantially harder schedule to finish the season. Thus, DEN regaining 8th seems unlikely.
After the March 30 games the standing are as follows.
GSW and SAS's Paths
Now with Nurkic, POR may not be as easy a first round opponent for GSW as appeared to be likely a few weeks ago despite GSW having swept POR in the regular season. Nevertheless, GSW should win the series but possibly not 4-0 even with Durant back. GSW's second round opponent will be UTA or LAC. GSW won all its games against both teams during the regular season, but it was not always easy. The nice thing for GSW is that it will only need to play one of them. If Durant is not back to his normal level of play – or at least close to it – the second round could go seven games meaning GSW would have a real chance to lose.
SAS should face MEM in the first round. MEM has won two of three over SAS in the regular season with another essentially meaningless game to yet be played. Nevertheless, SAS should be heavily favored, as always barring injury. Given that SAS defeats MEM, SAS will face HOU or OKC in the second round. HOU was 3-1 over OKC in the regular season. However, both HOU and OKC are one-man shows, and injury or a few in-the-zone games by Westbrook or Harden could swing the series one way or the other. Nevertheless, HOU has to be favored.
HOU winning its first round series over OKC may be a better result from SAS's viewpoint. Not only was SAS 3-1 against HOU in the regular season, but SAS matches up substantially better inside with HOU than with OKC. Adams and Kanter are a much more dangerous pair of bigs than Capela and Nene (not to say they are bad). Against both teams, SAS's front court would need to outplay their opponents in order to offset the superiority provided in the backcourt by Westbrook or Harden. A key to either series for SAS might be Danny Green's defense against either of these MVP candidates.
If the most likely consequence of the first two rounds occurs and GSW and SAS meet in the Western Conference Finals, GSW is the likely winner unless SAS fixes a few key problems and Popovich and his staff outcoaches Kerr and his. However, GSW also has concerns that I will cover first
First here are a few items GSW needs to have true in order to increase its chance of winning:
· Durant needs to have returned to form before the Western Conference Final
· Pachulia and McGee need to play at a reasonably high level – not outstanding, merely solid.
· GSW reserves (plus the starter(s) that are mixed in with them) need to play up to close to their potential because, if SAS's bench can substantially outplay GSW's, SAS would realize one of SAS's plausible means of winning the series.
The problems that SAS needs to rectify in rough order of higher to lower significance are:
· Focusing for 48 minutes or longer if needed. During the Duncan era, this was a consistent strength of SAS, but this year SAS has failed to do this on a number of occasions including its last in-season game with GSW.
· Deal effectively with double teams especially of Leonard but also Aldridge.
· Tony Parker's poor recent performance must be avoided either by playing him fewer minutes or his improving from his level of performance since his last injury. How much his injury remains an important causal factor in his recent poor performance is unknown outside the organization. If it is important, possibly rest could help.
· Regaining its high free throw percentage. During the one meaningful regular season game between the two teams, GSW used its fouls effectively to slow down SAS's offense including fouling Leonard seven times.
· Leonard's 3-point percentage needs to return to a level close to his percentage prior to March.
Injuries
Injuries have often played a significant role in the Playoffs and Championship. While they are not the only element of luck that can sway a series – examples of lucky shots and blown calls come to mind`– the difficulties they cause a team can be more significant and last longer. SAS fans have long been painfully aware of this, and GSW have now suffered their on player-injury-related pain.
GSW has four stars providing a level of insurance against the injury of one – with the possible exception of a serious injury to Draymond Green. His role is less interchangeable than the other three's. In addition, according to some reports, his effect on the team's psychology is also critical.
While less so than HOU but probably more than GSW, SAS also has a heavy dependence on a single star, Leonard. Though SAS has a good record when he has been out, rationally projecting SAS to win a series against a top team without him is impossible.
Conclusion
Unsurprisingly, the number one seed, this year GSW, should have an easier path to the Western Conference Finals than the second seed, SAS. SAS also has several areas it needs to improve in order to have a reasonable chance of winning the Western Conference Finals should GSW and SAS meet there. As it is every year, the biggest wildcard in the Playoffs is injuries. GSW is in a better position to overcome injuries to stars than SAS, but an injury to Draymond Green might prove fatal to GSW's chances.