Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Health care, the 2016 election, incompetence
Nate Cohn/Upshot:
To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.
Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate…
If turnout played only a modest role in Mr. Trump’s victory, then the big driver of his gains was persuasion: He flipped millions of white working-class Obama supporters to his side.
The voter file data makes it impossible to avoid this conclusion. It’s not just that the electorate looks far too Democratic. In many cases, turnout cannot explain Mrs. Clinton’s losses.
If persuasion is why he won, then persuasion is also how D’s can gain these voters back. It is why I counsel not shaming Trump voters; just shame Trump and his cronies. Highlight how incompetent he is. Remind people he wants to take your healthcare away (it’s true). Acknowledge problems. Offer a better alternative. The rest will follow.