NFL viewing bounces back, still down YoY

BI Intelligence

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Although the NFL was able to recoup some of its drastic viewership declines from the first two months of the season, the entire regular season still suffered from noticeable declines year-over-year, according to Nielsen data cited by the Wall Street Journal.

Through the first nine weeks of the season leading up to the presidential election, average viewership of NFL games hovered around 15.5 million, which is a 14% drop-off from the same period in 2015.

Post-election, from weeks 10 through 17, NFL viewership improved – averaging 17.6 million viewers – but was still down roughly 1% YoY. All in all, the average audience for NFL games over the entire regular season was 16.5 million viewers, an 8% dip from 2015’s average of 17.9 million viewers, according to Nielsen data cited by the Journal.  

Here’s a quick breakdown of the entire NFL season, by network:

• ESPN Monday Night Football: Down 12% YoY
• NBC Sunday Night Football: Down 10% YoY
• FOX Daytime Games: Down 7% YoY
• CBS Daytime Games: Down 6% YoY 

While various sources stated that viewership dropoffs were brought on by increased interest in the presidential election, it could also be that long game broadcasts are turning viewers away. NBC Broadcasting & Sports Chairman Mark Lazarus mentioned his concern about younger viewers' preference for highlights over full games. This brings about the topic of short-form video, where consumers can get all the information they need in shorter periods of time, especially top sports highlights.

Forty-three percent of respondents claimed they watch short-form video content in replace of traditional TV viewing or during the same time they watch traditional TV, according to a 2016 Horowitz research study.

Over the last few years, there’s been much talk about the “death of TV.” However, television is not dying so much as it's evolving: extending beyond the traditional television screen and broadening to include programming from new sources accessed in new ways.

It's strikingly evident that more consumers are shifting their media time away from live TV, while opting for services that allow them to watch what they want, when they want. Indeed, we are seeing a migration toward original digital video such as YouTube Originals, SVOD services such as Netflix, and live streaming on social platforms.

However, not all is lost for legacy media companies. Amid this rapidly shifting TV landscape, traditional media companies are making moves across a number of different fronts — trying out new distribution channels, creating new types of programming aimed at a mobile-first audience, and partnering with innovate digital media companies. In addition, cable providers have begun offering alternatives for consumers who may no longer be willing to pay for a full TV package.

Dylan Mortensen, senior research analyst for BI Intelligence, has compiled a detailed report on the future of TV that looks at how TV viewer, subscriber, and advertising trends are shifting, and where and what audiences are watching as they turn away from traditional TV. 

Here are some key points from the report:

• Increased competition from digital services like Netflix and Hulu as well as new hardware to access content are shifting consumers' attention away from live TV programming.
• Across the board, the numbers for live TV are bad. US adults are watching traditional TV on average 18 minutes fewer per day versus two years ago, a drop of 6%. In keeping with this, cable subscriptions are down, and TV ad revenue is stagnant.
• People are consuming more media content than ever before, but how they're doing so is changing. Half of US TV households now subscribe to SVOD services, like Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu, and viewing of original digital video content is on the rise.
• Legacy TV companies are recognizing these shifts and beginning to pivot their business models to keep pace with the changes. They are launching branded apps and sites to move their programming beyond the TV glass, distributing on social platforms to reach massive, young audiences, and forming partnerships with digital media brands to create new content.
• The TV ad industry is also taking a cue from digital. Programmatic TV ad buying represented just 4% (or $2.5 billion) of US TV ad budgets in 2015 but is expected to grow to 17% ($10 billion) by 2019. Meanwhile, networks are also developing branded TV content, similar to publishers' push into sponsored content.

In full, the report: 

• Outlines the shift in consumer viewing habits, specifically the younger generation.
• Explores the rise of subscription streaming services and the importance of original digital video content.
• Breaks down ways in which legacy media companies are shifting their content and advertising strategies.
• And Discusses new technology that will more effectively measure audiences across screens and platforms. 

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