Beijing is 'cautiously watching' Trump's next moves and would take 'forceful actions' if Trump crossed the red line

REUTERS/Mike Segar

US president-elect Donald Trump’s phone conversation with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen may not signal a major shift in the US’ longstanding one-China policy, but Beijing is “cautiously watching” Trump’s next moves while pondering its own, say experts on US-China relations.

Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said she did not believe that Trump intended to indicate he would change the foreign policy approach to the Taiwan Strait.

“I expect China will engage intensely with Trump’s transition team about Taiwan, both to determine Trump’s intentions in making the call and to warn of the consequences should he follow up with similar actions,” Glaser said.

William Stanton, a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington’s de factor embassy on the self-ruled island, was quoted by Central News Agency on Monday as saying the call was probably arranged ahead of time and Washington should have made such a move earlier.

Daniel Blumenthal, a China specialist at the American Enterprise Institute, said China was “prepared for the US to return to advocating on behalf of our own interests”.

“[China] advances its own version of the one-China policy, very different from our own, every day through missile and cyber coercion and diplomatic isolation. Those moves are not in our interests,” Blumenthal said.

Beijing has been restrained in its response to the phone call, the first time that the leaders of the US and Taiwan had spoken officially since 1979, when Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

“The world is very clear on China’s solemn position. The US side, including president elect Trump’s team, is very clear about China’s solemn position on this issue,” foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in Beijing.

REUTERS/Mike Segar

Shi Yinhong, an expert on US-China relations at Renmin University of China, said that by tolerating Trump’s boundary pushing, Beijing had shown goodwill towards the new American leader. Trump insists he will take a hard line with China over trade, currency and presence in the disputed South China Sea, but his foreign policy direction with the world’s second-largest economy remains otherwise unknown to outsiders.

Shi said China would respond with measures if Trump crossed what Beijing saw as a red line.

“China wants to establish good relations with Trump. That’s why it agreed to the latest UN resolution [on further sanctions] against North Korea recently,” he said.

Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University, said Beijing could use the North Korean issue as leverage in its relationship with the new administration at the White House.

“Don’t expect Beijing to work with you on North Korea, on Iran or on Islamic State. Can Tsai Ing-wen help you with that?” Shen said.

Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, said Beijing would deliver a more robust response if Trump escalated the Taiwan issue after taking office next month. The recent development would take a toll on Taiwan’s international standing.

Glaser said Beijing would take “forceful actions” if it perceived Trump as supporting Taiwanese independence.

“Today, China is much more powerful and would certainly take forceful actions if it believed that the US was supporting Taiwan independence,” she said.

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