How racial attitudes drove 2016 and could trump political ideology in future elections

After eight years of Republicans slamming everything President Obama did and denying him many of the things he wanted to do (like an infrastructure bill), new research suggests that white Americans were more likely to cast a vote in 2016 based on racial biases. In fact, the study based in part on Public Religion Research Institute surveys in 2012 and 2016 shows views on race mattered more than partisanship this cycle, in no small part because of Donald Trump’s campaign. What that means, Michael Tesler argues, is that racial views could realign the electorate, rivaling ideology as “the dominant partisan cleavage in the Age of Trump." 

We'll take a look at Tesler's evidence below the fold, but let's get to the heart of his argument first:

Obama’s eight years in the White House made American politics more about race than it had been in modern times. Racial attitudes spilled over into just about everything contrasted or contrasted with his presidency. Party identification, vote choices for Congress, public policy positions, and evaluations of prominent politicians (including Hillary Clinton) were all more divided by racial attitudes than they had been in the pre-Obama era. The heightened salience of race during Obama’s presidency ensured a prominent role for racial attitudes in the 2016 election, regardless of the candidates. [...]

But the most important factor was surely Trump. Obama polarized public opinion by racial attitudes primarily because of who he was, not because of what he said or did. Daniel Gillion’s new book shows that Obama spoke about race less than recent Democratic presidents and was criticized by black leaders and intellectuals for refusing to push for race-specific policies.