Democrats hold clear TV advertising advantage in just four key Senate battlegrounds
Have you been getting bombarded with TV ads for Senate races lately? A new report from the Wesleyan Media Project tells us just how intense the onslaught has been. From Aug. 19 to Sept. 15, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania topped the list of battleground Senate races where candidates and their allies have run the most commercials. Democratic-aligned groups have a decisive edge in just four states, as shown on the map above: Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans, meanwhile, hold an advantage in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Illinois and Iowa are more closely divided.
These disparities help give us an idea of the headwinds candidates are facing as we enter the final stretch of the campaign, while the overall level shows just how intense the fight for control of the Senate is. Lately, both parties have treated Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania like the country’s most competitive races, and that shows in the total number of ads aired in those states. One state where the airwaves have been flooded, though, isn’t on the list of top contests anymore: Ohio. But those ads have been a key player in that outcome, as the constant and mostly unanswered barrage from Republicans has helped sink Democrat Ted Strickland, who has seen his party cancelling most of reservations originally made on his behalf.
If Democrats were to win three of those four most competitive states, along with every other race Daily Kos Elections currently rates as favoring them—which would include pickups in Wisconsin and Illinois—they would win back the Senate, as long as Hillary Clinton also wins the White House, since Tim Kaine would break ties.
Of course, advertising only tells one part of the picture. Not all ads are created equal, and just because one party is running more of them doesn’t mean that party’s winning. Some ads are excellent, some are terrible, some cover the whole state, and others just choice media markets. However, breaking down ads by the number of spots rather than just by the sheer amount of money spent on them gives us an idea how many times voters might actually see them.