The Curious Case of Chris Kunitz
Chris Kunitz gets one last hurrah in 2017. How can the Penguins best utilize the winger that's been a key contributor since his arrival?
Heading into training camp, the Pittsburgh Penguins have most of their roster set. They return virtually the same team that just hoisted the Stanley Cup a few short months ago. However there are three very interesting story lines that hopefully get resolved before the start of the season. The first is obviously Fleury versus Murray in net. The second, in my opinion, is not what happens to Derrick Pouliot but how do the Penguins use Chris Kunitz?
The Roster
A brief glance at the Penguins' forwards shows a very clear pecking order at the Center and Right Wing positions. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are the pillars upon which the lines are built. Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen provide great depth at the Center position. At Right Wing, Phil Kessel is the scoring specialist the Penguins have needed to compliment Sid and Geno. Patric Hornqvist has meshed very well on the first line with Sid. Bryan Rust and Eric Fehr are solid Bottom 6 options.
Left Wing is where the questions linger. Is Conor Sheary a Top 6 winger? Does Carl Hagelin stick with Phil Kessel? The answers to these questions may rest on how the Penguins deploy Chris Kunitz.
Last Year's Results
Kunitz played nearly 1100 minutes at 5v5 last season including the playoffs. Over half of those minutes came flanking Sidney Crosby. In fact Kunitz only had 80 minutes of ice time without one or more of Crosby, Malkin, or Kessel.
| EVGENI.MALKIN | BRYAN.RUST | CHRIS.KUNITZ | 125.8 | 64.1 | 65.5 | 68.4 | 103.1 | 100.8 |
| SIDNEY.CROSBY | PATRIC.HORNQVIST | CHRIS.KUNITZ | 453.9 | 60.4 | 61.5 | 63.1 | 104.1 | 100.4 |
| SIDNEY.CROSBY | CHRIS.KUNITZ | DAVID.PERRON | 102.1 | 55.3 | 57.4 | 56.1 | 97.5 | 99.6 |
| NICK.BONINO | BEAU.BENNETT | CHRIS.KUNITZ | 79.9 | 55.2 | 57.1 | 62.8 | 107.0 | 100.9 |
| CHRIS.KUNITZ | BEAU.BENNETT | SIDNEY.CROSBY | 54.8 | 55.2 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 108.7 | 98.1 |
| ERIC.FEHR | EVGENI.MALKIN | CHRIS.KUNITZ | 61.2 | 54.5 | 52.4 | 49.8 | 96.9 | 99.5 |
| PHIL.KESSEL | SIDNEY.CROSBY | CHRIS.KUNITZ | 127.7 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 44.8 | 98.8 | 98.6 |
| EVGENI.MALKIN | PHIL.KESSEL | CHRIS.KUNITZ | 78.5 | 48.9 | 48.0 | 48.6 | 109.9 | 100.2 |
Whether it's Sid or Geno, Kunitz appears to mesh well with either of Pittsburgh's premiere centers. However, look at the other wings you might see with whom Kunitz doesn't appear to play as well. Beau Bennett. David Perron. Both former Penguins and both bad fits for Chris Kunitz. His worst results come when opposite Phil Kessel. This could be an artifact of the Mike Johnston era. Especially when you consider how well Kunitz played with Bryan Rust.
Though Rust lacks an All-World wrist shot, in many respects he is similar to Kessel. They are basically the same size physically and both heavily rely on their speed to create opportunities off the rush. While there is no denying the chemistry between Kessel and Hagelin it would be interesting to see if Kunitz and Kessel are truly oil and water or just victims of the Penguins slow start to last season.
The Competition
If we assume that Kunitz's role on Crosby's left wing is up for grabs we have to see who could replace him. I took rolling 20 game averages to smooth out the data. All of this is from Corsica Hockey. Below are the numbers for Kunitz, Hagelin, and Sheary.
The first is Fenwick For % and it is a good measure of how these players' lines are driving play. You can see the entire team pick up their game towards the end of the season and into the playoffs. Sheary and Hagelin take on bigger roles, skating with Sid and HBK respectively.
The next chart is Individual Fenwick For per 60. I chose this to try and see if we could isolate a given player's performance. Carl Hagelin's line is very consistent. He is a reliable contributor to his unit. You can see Conor Sheary struggling to adapt to the NHL for most of the regular season; but once the playoffs started and he had a chance to play with Crosby his numbers took off. Kunitz has a bit of a swoon late in the year but was able to return to normal at the start of the playoffs. That giant leap in late May is probably when the Kunitz-Malkin-Rust line formed.
Predictive stats are great, but what about Goals? Well the next series of charts examines that. Expected Goals For % reviews shots for and against, the likelihood that those shots would be goals, and finally compares what percentage of those would be scored by the good guys. Even though Sheary struggled with driving play late in the season, his chances were dangerous as reflected by the xGF%. Around that same time HBK formed and Hagelin enjoyed a swell in xGF% too. Notice though how that line trends down once the playoffs start. When HBK started seeing tougher competition they had a harder time generating chances. More on that in a bit.
How about Individual Expected Goals? Were these players generating good scoring chances for themselves? Look how consistent Hagelin's line is again! You know exactly what you're going to get with this player. Likewise you can see Sheary rounding into form just in time for the playoffs. Meanwhile Chris Kunitz struggles to generate individual scoring chances until later in the playoffs. This to me is very telling. While Kunitz is able to drive play as evidenced by his quality Fenwick numbers, I don't think he's going to score a lot of goals from it.
The final chart shows the actual 20 Game rolling average of Goals For %. Despite having a downward trending Expected Goals For, Carl Hagelin and the HBK line enjoy over 60% Goals For during the playoffs. They got hot/lucky at the right time. Kunitz saw decent results, while Sheary didn't benefit from his good Expected numbers. Tough to get those bounces when you're matching up against the other team's best every night.
Looking Ahead
What have we learned from all of this analysis? Even at 37 years old, Chris Kunitz can still play hockey at the NHL level. That in and of itself is no small feat. However, he isn't going to light the lamp very often. He scored 17 times in the regular season and added 4 more in the playoffs. Don't count on Kunitz scoring 20 goals this year even if he maintains his place on Crosby's wing.
I think you can make the argument that Carl Hagelin is the best and most consistent Left Wing currently on the Penguins' roster. It's not hard to imagine him as Pascal Dupuis 2.0 if he's paired with Crosby and Hornqvist. He's responsible on the defensive end so he can handle the tough match-ups that Crosby endures night in and night out. His speed would be a great asset and he has just enough puck skills to carry the puck in on the rush. That to me is what the 1st line needs the most; someone besides Crosby that can carry the puck into the zone. I question if Kunitz still has the speed and puck skills to fill this role in 2016-17.
Conor Sheary can do it and he might have the most offensive potential of any of the Left Wings (Scott Wilson remains a wildcard in this discussion). However I think Sheary would best be used as an offensive specialist while he works on his defensive game. Even then, due to his physical limitations he might never develop into a true all situations player. Chris Kunitz is not best used as an offensive specialist. Therefore he and Sheary aren't competing for the same roles on the team.
While Crosby is heavily leaned on, Malkin and his line get the most favorable zone starts on the team. If Malkin's unit is to be filled with offensive specialists could we see a Sheary-Malkin-Kessel line? There is evidence to suggest that Kunitz and Kessel don't mesh well together. So if this is the route that Penguins go down I wouldn't expect Kunitz to be involved in the 2nd line; unless Kunitz and Kessel develop more chemistry.
This leads me to what I think is the most interesting option. Kunitz on the 3rd line in a more neutral role. Given his scoring struggles this sort of role would fit Kunitz well. Review the table from before and you'll find that a Kunitz-Bonino-Bennett line actually enjoyed great success. They posted Kunitz's highest Expected PDO, third highest Expected Goals For %, and a Fenwick For above 57%. Remove Beau Bennett and replace him with Bryan Rust and the Penguins might have a very reliable 3rd line.
Conclusion
Chris Kunitz will continue to be an important part of this hockey team in 2016-17. He's still a quality NHL player even if his hands have retired early. He'll have a chance to raise the Stanley Cup for a fourth time in his career. He could reprise his role as Sidney Crosby's sidekick; but in my opinion the best option for the Penguins is to reduce his role to something commensurate with his scoring. Let him bring his chemistry with Bryan Rust to a line centered by the underrated Nick Bonino and let's see what this team can accomplish.