Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Bernie and beyond Bernie, candidate or movement?
Kos had a terrific piece looking at NY exit polls yesterday. Here are the actual exit polls themselves.
Steve Schale with more Dem primary analysis (Steve ran the 2008 FL campaign for O):
The commanding win tonight by Secretary Clinton should bring an end to the nomination fight. Going into tonight, her delegate lead was over 200, and her popular vote lead was over 2.4 million. We'll see how the delegates get allocated, but her lead will significantly grown tonight, and she will add another 200,000 or more her popular vote lead. This in a state that Sanders' top advisor has said was one they needed to win, and one where Sanders himself, as recently as last week said: "We will win a major victory here in New York next Tuesday."
The facts on this are no longer disputable:
After tonight, Sanders will need to win 59% of the remaining delegates to get to the nomination.
And if we look ahead to next week, based simply on the public polling available for the April 26th primaries & assuming Clinton gets no bump from tonight's win, after next Tuesday Sanders will need to win roughly 65% of the delegates in the remaining 14 contests (of which only two: Guam and North Dakota are caucuses).
To put it in clearer terms, after April 26th, she will only need to win about 350 of the remaining 1,000 or so delegates to secure a majority of pledged delegates. It is over.
In addition, after April 26th, she will almost certainly lead the popular vote by more than 3 million votes. There will also be no viable path for him to win a majority of the popular vote.
For those who point to 2008, let's compare the race at the same point:
If you go back to the week after Pennsylvania - Obama had a less than 100 delegate lead in pledged delegates, compared to Clinton's, which will likely be over 300. And yes, California was earlier last time, but even if you take California out of the 08 map, she has more than twice the delegate lead that Obama had in 08.
Or compare the popular vote: less than 200,000 votes separated Clinton and Obama at this point in 2008. This election, outside of the media narrative, has not been, nor today is anything like 2008.
Bernie Sanders’s campaign manager tried to argue delegate math on MSNBC. It didn’t go well.
The delegate math is cruel.