TSMC is reportedly sold out until 2028 and even its next-gen Arizona fab is fully booked before it has even been built
Taiwanese megafoundry TSMC is reportedly sold out until 2028. That includes its cutting edge new N2 node, which is expected to be used by everyone from Nvidia and Apple to AMD and Intel. It's even claimed that TSMC has sold out capacity at future fabs that have yet to be built.
According to South Korean outlet Chosun, multiple sources have indicated demand from those established players in customer chip manufacturing is being joined by newer AI-fuelled entrants including Google and Amazon. The net result is that TSMC's capacity is totally booked out, possibly opening the door to Samsung as an alternative foundry.
Chosun reports that TSMC is busy building new capacity, but much of it is not due to come online for several years. Even then, it claims that at least some of that new capacity is already sold out. "Reservations for its fourth plant in Arizona, which aims for mass production by 2030, are already closed even before construction has begun," the site claims. Scary.
Incidentally, TSMS Fab 4 Arizona is being tooled up for N2 production, which gives you an idea of the time frames and longevity of chip nodes these days. It also reflects the fact that TSMC reserves its very latest technology for its premiere factories in Taiwan. TSMC is planning the A14 node to follow N2, with production expected to begin some time around 2028.
As for the whole TSMC-versus-Samsung thing, Chosun says TSMC currently holds 72% of the global chip foundry market, with Samsung at just 7%. It also claims that only TSMC and Samsung can offer customers 2 nm chip manufacturing technology, something that Intel and its 18A and 14A nodes might take issue with that notion, even if Intel is being awfully cagey about announcing external customers for its foundries.
Chosun reports that both Tesla and Nvidia have signed up for Samsung's latest fab tech and it would certainly be welcome if Samsung—and Intel—could offer a viable alternative to TSMC dominant fabs.
Of course, these things take time. It took decades for TSMC to carve out its current advantage, and likewise many years of arguable mismanagement for Intel to lose its preeminent position among chip makers. And so any assault on TSMC is also sure to take years.
Long story short, then, insofar as our gaming PCs depend on cutting-edge silicon, we've got a while to wait yet before there's enough fab capacity out there to ensure that the likes of GPUs and, latterly CPUs are hostage to the fortunes of our burgeoning AI overlords. To wit, don't go hoping for cheaper PCs any time soon.