The Great South China Sea Cool Down?

Ngeow Chow Bing

Security, Asia

Has a more restrained approach finally arrived in "Asia's Cauldron"?

In July, the much anticipated Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) decision on the South China Sea was delivered in favor of the Philippines. While Chinese propaganda machines were in full gear denouncing the ruling and the PCA, there is so far no sign that China is overreacting to the ruling. China has also been quite conciliatory towards the new presidential administration in the Philippines.

The Philippines reacted cautiously in its statement on the ruling and has expressed a desire to mend ties with China, including appointing a former China-friendly president as a special envoy to perhaps begin a bilateral negotiation process. Similarly, both Vietnam and Malaysia were careful, affirming respect for international law and diplomacy, but refraining from directly urging China to accept and follow the ruling. Even the United States and Japan urged the relevant parties to refrain from provocative actions and statements.

Against this backdrop, the outcome of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Vientiane in late July also complied with the pattern of restraint. The joint communique of the 49th ASEAN Foreign Minister Meetings did not mention the ruling at all and did not single out China. It does mention that ASEAN remains "seriously concerned over recent and ongoing developments," and that "the land reclamations and escalation of activities in the area" have "eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region."

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