Iran’s Treacherous Landscape in Vienna

J. Matthew McInnis

Security, undefined

"The difficulty is that Iran’s military advantage on the ground does not necessarily translate into the diplomatic strength needed for a favorable outcome."

Iran’s leaders may be pleased about their inclusion in the recent Vienna talks on Syria as a sign of newfound respect from the international community.

The need for such talks in the first place was a reminder, though, of the precarious diplomatic and military position that Tehran still faces in the Levant.

In the civil war’s fifth year, Iran recognizes it will likely never recoup a territorially intact, allied state and some partition is probably advantageous. There’s no question that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) is increasing its numbers on the ground, remolding Syria’s security forces in its image, deploying Shia militias from around the region, and employing Lebanese Hezbollah in part to guarantee Tehran’s leverage in any political resolution.

The difficulty is that Iran’s military advantage on the ground does not necessarily translate into the diplomatic strength needed for a favorable outcome.

Russia’s intervention has probably staved off the collapse of Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime. Moscow’s joint operations aim only to secure a defendable remnant state in eastern Syria and gain leverage in any diplomatic settlement. As I have argued before, Iran’s objectives are broader than Russia’s. Moscow is not terribly interested in helping Tehran spread its political and religious influence in the Levant or strengthen its position against Israel.

Assad’s status remains the heart of the matter. Most of the parties at the Vienna talks expect that the Syrian president must go after a period of time as part of any negotiated settlement. Iran is unlikely to accept this. While there is no love lost between Tehran and the Syrian president (or between Moscow and Assad for that matter), Assad is still the only game in town for Iran. Tehran lacks deep connections with the majority of Syria’s communities, even in Assad’s home Alawi community, and is unlikely to trust any leader that isn’t Assad or from his inner circle.

Since the Vienna talks last week, Iranian rhetoric has stiffened against the idea of an Assad transition in the near term. As Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an ironic defender of democracy, stated on November 1:

We believe it doesn’t make sense that other countries get together and decide about a governing system and the head of that state…this is a dangerous initiative which no country in the world would accept to be done for itself.

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