Support for Alberta separatism at a 5-year high: poll

OTTAWA — A new poll finds that support for Alberta separatism is at its highest level in at least five years, with a fall independence referendum looking increasingly likely.

The poll, taken by Pollara Strategic Insights, shows that 27 per cent of decided voters in Alberta would vote for the province to separate from Canada. This is a seven point increase from December 2025 and a record-high over the five years Pollara has spent tracking support for independence among Albertans.

A further 15 per cent say they might vote to separate as a way to “send a message to Ottawa,” meaning that as many as 42 per cent of voters could be in play for the separatists in an independence referendum.

Pollara chief strategy officer Dan Arnold says the numbers are likely a reflection that separation talk is becoming more mainstream within Alberta’s political circles.

“A lot of voters do take their lead from political leaders, and if (they) give approval, or at least tacit approval, of separatism, I think it makes the position a lot more acceptable,” said Arnold.

One elected official, United Conservative Party MLA Jason Stephan, has publicly expressed support for a referendum, writing in a late March op-ed that an independence vote would be good for Alberta. Stephan has not said whether he’d vote to separate.

So far, no UCP MLAs have signed a pledge of loyalty to Canada circulated by Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi.

It wasn’t all bad news for the pro-Canada side as the poll also showed the vast majority of Albertans still feel a sense of attachment to their country. Overall, 84 per cent said they were “proud to be Canadian,” an increase from 2022.

Interestingly, a majority of Albertans who’d vote to separate, 58 per cent, also said they’re proud Canadians.

Arnold says he suspects this paradox speaks to the complex mix of emotions many Albertans hold toward both Ottawa and the United States.

“I think (U.S. President Donald) Trump is still a factor here,” said Arnold. “(Trump’s provocations) seem to be the thing that’s spurring a sort of defensive nationalism, in both Alberta and other parts of Canada.”

Arnold noted that the proposition of Alberta as an independent country consistently polls higher than Alberta joining the U.S. as the 51st state.

Rural Albertans and supporters of the governing UCP were more supportive of separation. Fifty-five per cent of UCP voters and 33 per cent of those who lived outside of Calgary and Edmonton said they’d vote to separate.

Men between the ages of 35 and 49 were the most pro-separation demographic, with three in 10 saying that Alberta should separate from Canada and become its own country.

The finding comes at a time when the Alberta-Ottawa memorandum of understanding on energy — hailed by Premier Danielle Smith as a sign that Canada still works — looks to be losing steam. The agreement is officially behind schedule as negotiators missed the first round of major deadlines on April 1. 

Canvassers circulating a pro-independence petition announced last week that they’d collected the 177,732 signatures needed to force a referendum on separation in the fall. They have until May 2 to submit the petition to Elections Alberta.

The polling results are based on an online survey of 3,200 Albertan adults, conducted from March 16 to 25, 2026. Data were statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region.

Online polls are not considered representative samples and thus don’t carry a margin of error. However, the poll document provides an estimated margin, for comparison purposes, of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

National Post
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