Still Too Early To Silence the Lions Roaring Above Iran

The Iran war is full of surprises. The United Nations Security Council, often a hostile arena for Israel, condemned Tehran — not Washington and Jerusalem — on March 11 for Iran’s war conduct, particularly its strikes on Gulf Arab countries uninvolved in the conflict.

The Gulf strikes are part of the Islamic Republic’s strategy to increase international pressure to force the war’s premature end. This is intended to prevent the United States and Israel from achieving their ideal scenario — the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime — or an acceptable outcome — stopping Iran’s offensive military capabilities. 

Terrible as war is, this one should continue until more of its initial goals are achieved. 

That’s not to say there haven’t been successes. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander in chief, the minister of defense, the head of the military council, the deputy intelligence minister, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, and other Iranian leaders met at Khamenei’s compound in Tehran on February 28. All of them died there.

In the devastating opening salvo, the Iranian leaders who had long called for Israel’s destruction and chanted “death to America” were instead killed by the countries they wished to harm.

Battle damage assessments can be difficult amid the fog of war, but some things are clear. The United States has struck approximately 6,000 targets, including more than 90 naval ships, and enjoys air superiority over large swaths of Iran. Iran’s drone and missile launches have declined by around 90 percent compared to the first day of the war. Israel assesses that 75 percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, and the United States and its partners have intercepted thousands of Iranian drones.

US and Israeli forces are fighting wingtip-to-wingtip in the skies over Iran, and the Gulf Arab states’ fury at Iran for attacking them may portend favorable developments in the regional defense architecture envisioned in the Abraham Accords.

But there’s more work to be done. The Islamic Republic has struck at least 12 countries in an attempt to create economic pressure for the war to end.

A de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is reducing global shipping and driving up commodity prices, especially oil and gas. And though he hasn’t been seen since being injured early on in the conflict, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has pledged to leverage the Strait’s closure to squeeze the global economy even further to try to get Gulf countries to pressure the United States to halt the operation.

With further damage to the world’s economy looming, the United States and its partners may eventually have to try reopening the Strait. But even without doing so, options exist to reduce the blockade’s impact. The International Energy Agency already released 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, and plans are reportedly being considered for US naval and other escorts through the narrow waterway.

There’s also the regime’s nuclear program to consider. While the damage done to nuclear facilities at Isfahan and Natanz remains largely unclear, satellite imagery indicates that they have been struck during the campaign. Israel did confirm on March 12 that it struck Taleghan 2, a site utilized by the Islamic Republic for explosives testing related to its nuclear program.

But with the regime’s highly enriched uranium supply reportedly buried deep under mountains in fortified Iranian facilities, air power can only do so much damage. It’s unclear if the US or Israel are considering special operations missions to try and make sure that uranium can’t be used in a future nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, Israel has used its air power to weaken Iran’s tools of repression.

Since the beginning of the war, Iranians have reported that checkpoints run by the regime’s Basij forces have increased in cities around the country. The “religious” militia has also been running more patrols. The Basij seek to prevent a repeat of the massive anti-regime protests in January, in which more than 30,000 innocent Iranians were reportedly slaughtered.

Earlier this month, Iranian state media reported that at least 10 members of the Basij were killed in drone attacks at several checkpoints around the Iranian capital. Later, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed carrying out the precision strikes, pledging to “continue to strike at the mechanisms and operatives of the Iranian terror regime wherever they operate.”

The most optimistic forecast for this conflict is the eradication of the Islamic regime at the hands of historically oppressed Iranian civilians. For now, conditions on the streets are still far too volatile to resume protests.

Israeli eyes in the sky, combined with targeted strikes against Basij forces, can help tilt the odds in favor of the protesters seeking to take their country back from tyrants. A lesser success would be weakening the regime’s nuclear, ballistic, and drone capabilities to dramatically decrease the threat Iran poses to the United States and the world. The United States and Israel have already severely weakened the Islamic Republic, but the mission is far from over.

David May is the research manager and a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow David and Aaron on X @DavidSamuelMay and @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.