Prediction markets point to Talarico-Paxton showdown in Texas Senate race

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are signaling growing confidence that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are on track to secure their parties' Senate nominations.

The Texas primary election is scheduled for Tuesday, with voting opening in the morning and results expected later that night or early Wednesday.

Kalshi’s market data shows traders assigning Talarico a 75% probability of securing the Democratic Senate nomination, a 49-point advantage over fellow Texas Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

Talarico, 36, is a Texas state representative first elected in 2018, has positioned himself as a progressive voice within the party and has emerged as a rising Democratic figure in the Lone Star State.

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Trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, stands at just over $5.2 million. While odds on these markets don’t serve as formal forecasts, they do provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations.

While Democrats appear to be consolidating behind Talarico, the Republican primary has taken a sharper turn, with traders overwhelmingly backing Paxton over longtime Sen. John Cornyn.

Traders assign Paxton an 81% probability of securing the GOP nomination, a 63-point lead over Cornyn. About $2.2 million has been wagered on this market.

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Paxton, a conservative firebrand and longtime ally of President Donald Trump, has served as the state’s attorney general for nearly a decade. Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002.

When it comes to the general election in November, prediction markets give the Republican Party an edge. Even with Talarico leading the Democratic field, traders appear to believe the GOP remains better positioned statewide.

Kalshi traders see a Talarico and Paxton contest with Paxton winning the Senate seat.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades.

Whether those odds hold will depend on how voters respond in the months ahead, but for now, prediction markets suggest Texas remains in Republican hands.