New poll: Five candidates for governor are in a “statistical dead heat”

The race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom is still wide open and the candidates’ views on the state’s burgeoning affordability crisis might hold the key to the governorship, according to a new poll.

The Public Policy Institute of California released its latest statewide survey this week which found five candidates are essentially in a “statistical dead heat” among likely voters. The poll, which was conducted Feb. 3-11 and surveyed 1,657 residents, placed Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton in the lead at 14%, followed by former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter at 13%, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 12%, Democratic East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell at 11% and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, who is also a Democrat, at 10%.

 

Those results largely fall within the survey’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, effectively putting the frontrunners in a tie, and mirror other recent independent polls. A survey conducted by Emerson College on Feb. 13-14 also found Hilton (17.1%) in the lead, followed by Swalwell (14.1%), Bianco (13.5%), Porter (9.8%) and then Steyer (8.8%).

“Three months out from the June primary, the top two slots in the gubernatorial race are up for grabs,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy, said in a news release about the poll.

How each candidate will tackle the state’s affordability crisis and the cost of living was “very important” to 61% of likely voters — and even more so to residents under the age of 35, renters and those making under $40,000 a year.

“Voters feel hammered by cost-of-living realities, so affordability will be a defining issue for them,” Baldassare said.

Other candidates that fell outside of the top five included: former health secretary and Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5%, former state Controller Betty Yee at 5%, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 3%, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 2% and former state Assemblymember Ian Calderon at 1%.

Mahan, who enjoys significant backing from Silicon Valley technology leaders, was a late entrant, joining the race Jan. 29, but with a significant haul in campaign funding.

A large swath of California voters, though, still remain undecided on who they’d like to see succeed Newsom as he terms out of office and eyes a potential presidential run in 2028. PPIC’s poll showed 10% of respondents didn’t have a chosen candidate compared to the 21% of voters undecided in the Emerson College survey, while 48% of likely voters also said they weren’t following the governor’s race very closely.

The poll’s release comes just days after the California Democratic Party held its annual state convention in San Francisco last weekend where the party failed to unite behind a single candidate. With nine prominent Democrats in the race, pressure on lower polling candidates to drop out has increased as concerns grow that Democrats will split their party’s vote in the June 2 primary, allowing two Republicans to slip into the runoff. California has a “jungle primary” system where the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to the November election.

PPIC’s poll also tested the temperature of policy decisions being made in Sacramento.

Newsom recently released his proposed 2026-2027 fiscal year budget, which has a projected $2.9 billion deficit. In the poll, nearly all respondents (91%) said the state’s budget situation was somewhat of a problem, though they were divided on how to close the gap, with 43% for spending cuts and 39% through a mix of cuts and tax increases.

But most taxes didn’t appear to be popular in the poll. A majority of likely voters (55%) said they would prefer to pay lower taxes if it meant the state government would provide fewer services, and 61% of likely voters feel that the current state and local tax system isn’t fair.

When it comes to tax the wealthy, though, the idea seems to be gaining steam as 61% of likely voters said they were in favor of raising taxes for the state’s wealthiest residents in order to balance the budget. A tax on California’s billionaires that’s being backed by SEIU-UHW is currently being proposed for the November 2026 ballot.

“It’s a case of ‘tax thee, not me,” Baldassare said.