‘Atletico would be favourites to beat Liverpool in UCL’ – Craig Burley

Liverpool’s possible Champions League last-16 meeting with Atletico Madrid is already being debated after predictions were made about how Arne Slot’s side would fare.

The Spanish club progressed with a 7-4 aggregate victory over Club Brugge on Tuesday night and is now one of two potential opponents we could face when the draw takes place on Friday morning.

The other candidate will come from Juventus or Galatasaray, but discussion has quickly focused on the prospect of facing Diego Simeone’s team again.

Pundits make Atletico Madrid prediction about Liverpool

On ESPN UK, Craig Burley suggested the La Liga side would actually start the tie as favourites despite our progression to the knockout stage.

“Liverpool… they’ve not been good and Atleti on their day this season have been better than Liverpool.”

The same segment referenced Atletico’s big performances in Spain this season and their attacking threats

“I think at this moment in time I would have to say a fully fit Atleti side… if Alexander Sørloth continues this sort of form and Julian Alvarez picks up again… Atleti for me would be the favourites.”

That claim is striking considering Liverpool defeated the Madrid side 3-2 earlier in the competition at Anfield through Virgil van Dijk’s added-time winner.

With this previous meeting also seeing a touchline flashpoint involving Simeone and the visiting coaching staff spitting at Liverpool fans, as well as their manager’s comments about us, it’s quite a growing rivalry between the teams.

Atletico Madrid season record vs Liverpool form

A look at the table in Spain shows a more nuanced picture.

La Liga 2025-26	Points
Barcelona	61
Real Madrid	60
Villarreal	51
Atletico Madrid	48

Atletico have won 14, drawn 6 and lost 5 league games, leaving them outside the title race and almost a dozen points behind Barcelona.

Liverpool’s own domestic campaign has also been inconsistent, recording 13 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats, which partly explains the external doubts.

Our recent 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest highlighted both sides of the team, with a difficult first half followed by a resilient second-half response culminating in Alexis Mac Allister’s stoppage-time goal.

Slot’s men have also already shown we can hurt Atletico, racing into a two-goal lead inside six minutes in the earlier meeting before ultimately winning late.

The contrast is why calling the Spanish side clear favourites feels premature, particularly given Atletico’s fluctuating form and the fact they have struggled against English teams in recent Champions League campaigns.

Liverpool will discover the final opponent at Friday’s draw, but the early narrative is already clear – many observers doubt us, even though recent history between the two clubs suggests a far closer contest than predicted.

The post ‘Atletico would be favourites to beat Liverpool in UCL’ – Craig Burley appeared first on The Empire of The Kop.