Red Sea To East Africa: China’s Infrastructure Power And The New Maritime Statecraft – Analysis

The Indian Ocean and Red Sea is subject to witness increasing intensified rivalry and owing to this Africa’s maritime topography has assumed increased strategic importance.

The recent Chinese investments in ports across key nations of East Africa such as Tanzania, Kenya and Djibouti are often depicted as precursors to military installations abroad or covert power projection. However, these concerns are justified but they risk neglecting a more consequential reality. Comparatively, a more subdued form of maritime statecraft is reflected by China’s outlook to African ports. Instead of depending totally upon the overt coercive forces China assembles its influence via integration of logistics, commercial connectivity and the development of the infrastructure. Countries of East Africa present an interesting case of China gaining strategic benefits that function below the threshold of formal securitisation process by integrating itself into Africa's political economy of transportation and commerce, ultimately affecting and reshaping the larger maritime order. 

Political Economy of Connectivity 

The recent statistics showcases that more than 80% of the worldwide trade is being carried out by the sea routes which implies the emergence of ports as connectivity hubs and the strategic significance of the same in the modern global economy. Nowadays, ports are acting as channels to interconnect the sea lanes to inland markets, provide a logistical foundation for economic growth and facilitate energy transit. Chinese state-owned enterprises fund, build and run the facilities of the port as part of its visionary Belt and Road Initiative which grants long-term concession while they embed technical standards and logistics systems into the host economies which reflects China’s keen understanding of multifunctionality confirmed by its port development strategy. Ultimately, this method creates structural reliance rather than using coercive power China passively by integrating its infrastructure projects into the national developmental plans. Thus, infrastructure becomes a strategic asset  as the control over circulation including supply chains, shipping routes and logistical networks can rival territorial control in increasing geopolitical significance. Integration between economies has underlying security consequences which gradually blurs the barrier between trade and strategy. 

East Africa’s New Maritime Order

Taking Djibouti as the reference point which is located at the East-West shipping route’s southern entrance in the Red Sea, has demonstrated how the infrastructure might precede security results. It acts as a regional centre and the gateway to nearby economies. For example- according to the statistics over 85% of cargo hat passes through it is linked to Ethiopia. These ties are further strengthened through heavy Chinese investment in construction of modern terminals and related rail and road networks. Ethiopia now possesses trusted overland access to the sea post the completion of the Addis-Ababa-Djibouti electrified railway in 2017. China now have a hand in developing over 30 commercial ports across the African continent in more than 15 African nation-states which illustrates its continental on the grounds of logistical integration rather than formal basing. The recent China-backed developmental projects in the countries of Tanzania and Kenya for example the planned Bagamoyo port and Mombasa’s upgrades are still civilian. But, they inherit the dual-use potential that is inland connections, deep-water berths and high-capacity terminals that can assist logistics during shifted political circumstances. Rather than being exercised through strategic coercion these investments are negotiated by the governments of the host countries that are looking to build infrastructure.  

Implications

The strategic significance of ports on the far side of peacetime trade is demonstrated by the recent disturbances in the Red Sea. The transit of ships have relatively decreased by as much as 66% as an outcome of the existing geopolitical tensions that are driving vessels away from the Suez Canal, straining global supply systems and pushing the traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. Africa’s maritime hubs are now seen as alternative logistical routes due to these developments. The advantages of embedded logistical networks instead of permanent military establishments is highlighted by the large port presence of China across the East Africa region which further enhances its potential to adjust to such shocks. China still continues to prioritise connectivity-based resilience over the conflict on the high seas. 

However, in the near future, the superiority of the Western Naval powers cannot be totally displaced by the Chinese strategy of ports development across the African continent. The US and its alliances have successfully retained overwhelming maritime potentials and established base networks. Though, there is a gradual shift in the operational environment by normalising Chinese presence along the critical maritime lanes and minimising logistical asymmetries which is also part and parcel of Beijing's approach. At a deeper level it questions the conventional assumptions on maritime power. Contractual integration, access and ownership standards are the following sources of influence instead of the fleet size alone. The global maritime order is assumed increasingly to become more congested, politically ambiguous and contractual as infrastructure becomes essential to the strategic rivalry. The strategy of the Beijing is differentiated from alliance-based Western models and nation’s capacity because of its willingness to absorb the commercial risk and remain operational in the politically changing contexts which indicates its strategic culture where positional advantage is valued over confrontation.

Infrastructure as the Statecraft and What it Means for India ?

The World Geopolitics is experiencing a larger shift owing to the Chinese involvement in the ports across the African continent. Infrastructure is now itself acting as a durable tool of power. China is pursuing its strategic goals without going into an overt militarisation by successfully integrating itself into the African maritime economy. Currently, the African national government is experiencing a continuous dilemma as they have to capture socio-economic gains while also securing it strategic autonomy. The external powers need to move far from securitised narratives and towards a more transparent, competitive and development oriented engagement in order to respond effectively.

The following developments indicate a strategic necessity for India which highlights a regular investment in regional infrastructure and logistics alliances in tandem with maritime presence in the region of western Indian Ocean. Thus, it is necessary to pay attention to the political economy of the connectivity as well together with the ships and bases in order to comprehend China’s maritime growth.

About the authors:

• Akshan Ranjan is a PhD research scholar at the Centre for African Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi-110067.
• Khushnuma Alam is pursuing her Master’s in Politics with specialization in International Relations from School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi-110067

Indicative References:

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• Farrell, H. & Newman, A. “Weaponized Interdependence.”
• Kardon, I. China’s Law of the Sea.