Pac-12 MBB power rankings: Can the rebuilt conference overtake the Big East for non-Power Four supremacy?
Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of a conference that doesn’t exist (yet) using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s edition.
The lines have been drawn even though the competition is nine months away: Will the new Pac-12 overtake the Big East next season as the “best of the rest” — the toughest league outside the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC?
That’s precisely what conference officials would have you believe. Since Gonzaga and five Mountain West schools agreed in the fall of 2024 to join Washington State and Oregon State in rebuilding the Pac-12, officials have repeatedly billed the conference as a “top-five” league.
No less an authority than ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi addressed the topic in his latest Bracketology report, noting: “The new Pac-12 will immediately chase, and perhaps surpass, the Big East in both total bids and percentage of teams making the NCAA tournament.”
At the moment, the Big East, which includes Connecticut and Villanova, is considered the No. 5 conference in the land, ahead of the American, Mountain West and dozens of others.
It has four teams in the top 50 of the latest NET rankings: No. 8 Connecticut, No. 25 St. John’s, No. 34 Villanova and No. 50 Butler.
Meanwhile, only three teams that will compete in the Pac-12 next season clear the top-50 threshold: No. 4 Gonzaga, No. 26 Utah State and No. 47 San Diego State.
Add a layer to the comparison, and the Big East gains an edge: It has eight teams in the top 100, whereas the new Pac-12 has just five.
What’s more, the lowest-ranked team in the new Pac-12, No. 285 Texas State, is far below the worst team in the Big East, No. 144 Marquette.
Based on NET data, the new Pac-12 isn’t particularly close to the existing Big East in quality depth.
But there’s a caveat: The Mountain West schools joining the Pac-12 next season are being dragged down (within the NET’s algorithm) by the lower tier of their current conference, which includes No. 255 San Jose State and No. 344 Air Force.
Once the Pac-12 reforms as a nine-team basketball conference, the quality of an average league game should improve.
(A key reason the Mountain West quintet made the move to the new Pac-12 was to improve their schedule strength for NCAA Tournament and College Football Playoff access.)
Will stronger schedules power the Pac-12 past the Big East and into fifth place in the conference hierarchy?
Only if the Pac-12 collects three or four NCAA Tournament bids on a regular basis and a team not named Gonzaga or San Diego State inflicts damage in March Madness.
Quality depth is essential in the narrative duel for conference supremacy. The Big East seemingly has an advantage with St. John’s, Butler, Marquette, Xavier and Creighton. Which equivalents will rise in the rebuilt Pac-12? Colorado State, Utah State and Boise State are the most likely candidates. But more options are needed to increase the hit rate.
If Washington State, Oregon State, Fresno State and Texas State continue to wallow, the Pac-12 will be hard-pressed to match, much less overtake, the Big East.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Gonzaga (21-1)
Results: beat Pepperdine 84-60 and San Francisco 68-66NET ranking: No. 4Comment: The Zags haven’t finished a season with more efficiency on defense than offense, based on the Pomeroy Ratings (points per possession), since 2016-17. But as of today, their defense ranked eighth nationally, 11 spots higher than the offense. (Previous: 1)
2. San Diego State (14-5)
Results: lost at Grand Canyon 70-69, won at UNLV 82-71NET ranking: No. 47Comment: The loss to Grand Canyon isn’t a resume killer by any means, but it reduces SDSU’s margin for error down the stretch. There are more opportunities to lose ground in the NET than to make meaningful progress, creating a tenuous situation for the bubble-sitting Aztecs. (Previous: 2)
3. Utah State (16-3)
Results: lost to UNLV 86-76, won at Colorado State 65-61NET ranking: No. 26Comment: The Aggies are examples 1A and 1B of a team whose resume is far weaker than its NET ranking suggests. Our view: If the season ended today, Utah State would be on the wrong side of the March Madness bubble. (Previous: 3)
4. Boise State (12-8)
Results: won at Wyoming 81-65, beat Air Force 96-54NET ranking: No. 64Comment: In our ongoing pursuit of full and complete transparency, Hotline readers should know that absolutely no credit is given in these power rankings for victories over Air Force. Everybody beats Air Force. (Previous: 4)
5. Washington State (9-13)
Results: lost at San Diego 96-92, beat Pepperdine 95-79NET ranking: No. 150Comment: The Cougars are doing just fine against the bottom half of the West Coast Conference but are winless against the top tier. Consider us unimpressed until that changes. (Previous: 5)
6. Oregon State (10-12)
Results: lost at Saint Mary’s 81-51NET ranking: No. 211Comment: The Hotline has a solid grasp of the challenges facing Oregon State in the era of NIL, revenue sharing and the transfer portal, but the Beavers simply should not be 61 spots lower than Washington State in the NET — or 74 spots lower in the Pomeroy ratings. (Previous: 6)
7. Fresno State (9-11)
Results: lost at New Mexico 83-74 and to Grand Canyon 68-57NET ranking: No. 147Comment: On the bright side, the Bulldogs have zoomed past their 2024-25 victory total (six wins) and are tracking for their best season since 2022. That said, they likely will finish well below. 500, again. (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado State (12-8)
Results: beat Air Force 81-52, lost to Utah State 65-61NET ranking: No. 93Comment: Good chance CSU’s double-digit, early-season victory at Grand Canyon is ultimately viewed as one of the most inexplicable results of the Mountain West season. (Previous: 8)
9. Texas State (11-11)
Results: lost at Coastal Carolina 72-70 and James Madison 82-57NET ranking: No. 285Comment: The new Pac-12 will be defined, in large part, by the quality of teams at the bottom of the standings. This time next year, the Bobcats must be far closer to No. 200 in the NET than No. 300 … or the entire conference will suffer. (Previous: 9)
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