The Looming Hydrological Crisis: How Water Weaponization Threatens Regional Stability and International Order

Author: Jamal Khan

Rising tensions over shared rivers in South Asia highlight how water management disputes increasingly threaten regional stability, human security, and broader international order.

In 21st-century geopolitics, warfare is no longer limited to tanks, missiles, or air power. A quieter but potentially more devastating threat is emerging; the weaponization of water. Control over transboundary rivers is increasingly used to exert political pressure, undermine economies, and destabilize societies. Recent developments in South Asia highlight how life-sustaining waterways are being transformed into strategic instruments of coercion.

This risk was underscored on December 18, 2025, when Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister briefed the Diplomatic Corps, accusing India of systematically undermining the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Pakistan argues that India’s actions reflect a broader regional trend in which upstream states leverage hydrological dominance to weaken downstream neighbors and bypass international legal obligations.

For more than six decades, the IWT survived wars and crises, often cited as a rare success in water diplomacy. Pakistan now says this foundation is being deliberately dismantled. In April 2025, India declared the treaty in “abeyance,” a move Islamabad calls a violation of international treaty law. This was followed by sudden and unexplained fluctuations in the Chenab River’s flow during May and December 2025, allegedly carried out without required prior notification or data sharing.

Pakistan describes these actions as deliberate “weaponization” of water. Timed releases and restrictions during critical agricultural periods, it argues, threaten food security, livelihoods, and economic stability for a population exceeding 240 million people. Concerns are compounded by disputed hydropower projects, including Kishanganga and Ratle, and India’s refusal to participate in arbitration proceedings under the treaty’s dispute-resolution mechanisms.

Indian rhetoric has further escalated tensions. A June 2025 statement attributed to India’s Home Minister suggesting permanent diversion of Indus waters prompted Pakistan’s National Security Committee to warn that such actions would be treated as an “act of war.” The dispute highlights how water coercion directly targets civilian survival, raising serious international humanitarian and human rights concerns.

However, Indian officials and analysts reject Pakistan’s depiction of recent developments as “water weaponization,” arguing that projects such as Kishanganga and Ratle comply with the Indus Waters Treaty’s provisions for run-of-the-river hydropower. From New Delhi’s perspective, reported flow variations reflect seasonal hydrology, climate factors, and routine operations rather than coercive intent, while treaty mechanisms were designed to manage technical disagreements, not eliminate all downstream risk. Indian policymakers also maintain that disputes should be addressed through bilateral treaty frameworks, cautioning that politicizing arbitration risks undermining the treaty’s stability.

This crisis cannot be viewed in isolation. China’s long-standing hydro-hegemony provides a critical regional precedent. As the upstream controller of major Asian rivers originating on the Tibetan Plateau, China has built extensive dam networks on rivers such as the Mekong and Brahmaputra. Downstream countries have repeatedly raised concerns over reduced flows, ecological damage, and opaque data sharing.

China’s unilateral approach, coupled with the absence of binding water-sharing treaties, has shaped regional perceptions that hydrological dominance is a legitimate strategic asset. Observers argue that India’s current posture toward Pakistan reflects lessons drawn from this model, weakening respect for cooperative water governance across Asia.

If normalized, such behavior threatens the core principles of international water law, including equitable use, harm prevention, and cooperation. The weaponization of water creates sustained, low-intensity coercion that blurs peace and conflict while disproportionately harming civilians and ecosystems.

The international community faces an urgent test. Transboundary water disputes are no longer technical bilateral matters but frontline issues of global peace and security. Upholding treaties, establishing norms against water coercion, and promoting transparent, inclusive river governance are essential to prevent future conflicts. As warned, if water becomes a weapon, tomorrow’s wars may be fought not over land or oil, but over survival itself.

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