Canadian military models US invasion scenario – media

The move comes amid Donald Trump’s repeated claims that Canada should be America’s 51st state and his push to acquire Greenland

The Canadian military has drafted a model response to a hypothetical US invasion, the Globe and Mail reported on Tuesday, citing senior defense officials.

The decision was reportedly prompted by rising NATO tensions, fueled by US President Donald Trump’s campaign to take over Greenland and his repeated suggestions that Canada should be part of the US.

According to the report, planners are modeling an attack from the south, expecting US forces to overrun Canada’s key land and maritime positions in as little as two days. Unable to repel a conventional attack, the military envisions insurgency-style warfare, with small units of irregulars or armed civilians carrying out sabotage, drone strikes and hit-and-run attacks – tactics modeled on Afghan mujahedeen operations against Soviet troops in the 1979-1989 war.

It’s believed to be the first time in a century that the Canadian Armed Forces have modeled a potential US attack on the country, a NATO founding member and US partner in continental air defense.

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Officials stressed that the model is “a conceptual and theoretical framework, not a military plan,” and that a US invasion is considered unlikely, though Trump’s Greenland push reportedly prompted planners to examine the scenario.

Trump has long sought to take over Denmark’s autonomous Arctic territory, citing security concerns and the need to counter Russia and China. The rhetoric has fueled friction with European NATO partners, who reject any change in Greenland’s status and warn that the move could spell the alliance’s end. Last week, Trump announced new tariffs on European states opposing his plan unless a deal is reached.

Trump has also repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the 51st US state, arguing that it would benefit Canadians. On Monday, he posted an AI-generated image of himself meeting with European leaders in the Oval Office, with a map showing US flags over Greenland, Canada, Cuba, and Venezuela.

New media post from Donald J. Trump

(TS: 20 Jan 00:58 ET)​​​‍​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍ pic.twitter.com/l94Se0U7G4

— Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) January 20, 2026

Canada has ruled out joining the US and says Greenland’s future is for Greenland and Denmark to decide. At the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney urged “middle powers” to act together to deter “hard power” states – implying the US – saying, “if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

READ MORE: Trump’s flight to Davos turns back after ‘electrical issue’

Carney is reportedly considering sending a small contingent of troops to Greenland as a show of support.