Path to Super Bowl LX: Rams, 49ers are tops in playcaller-QB combos
SANTA CLARA — Even with dominating defenses such as Denver, Houston and Seattle, the path to Super Bowl LX will be mostly navigated by the offense.
It’s offense that is most valued by NFL rulemakers and puts defenses at a disadvantage, and a game’s tempo and pace are dictated by the quarterback and the coach who designs and calls the plays.
With that in mind, here’s a subjective ranking of those unions among the eight teams remaining in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs:
1. Los Angeles Rams: coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford
The Rams got more than they expected from a game Carolina team which had no business hosting a home game with an 8-9 record, but such is life in the NFC South. Yet when it came down to the end, according to Rams wide receiver Davante Adams, it was Stafford who said, “Let’s go snatch these guys’ hearts.”
Which is exactly what Stafford did in a 34-31 win. McVay pulled the gangster move of trading Jared Goff for Stafford 2021 when Goff had taken the Rams to a Super Bowl, losing 13-3 to New England and it paid off with one Super Bowl with a potential second on the way. Stafford is the NFL’s likely Most Valuable Player.
2. 49ers: coach Kyle Shanahan, quarterback Brock Purdy
In their fourth year together, Purdy can probably finish Shanahan’s sentences and is in tune with not only the next play call, but the next sarcastic quip.
Even with two interceptions in a 23-19 win over Philadelphia, Purdy proved he can operate in the clutch in cold weather on the road. His arm is big enough to cut through the wind, and included downfield strikes to Demarcus Robinson (61 yards) and Jauan Jennings (45 yards) that helped put the Eagles on their heels. Purdy is 5-2 as a postseason quarterback.
3. Buffalo Bills: offensive coordinator Joe Brady, quarterback Josh Allen
Allen is the quarterback most likely to lift a team on his shoulders to victory. He did it in the wild-card round on the road against Jacksonville in a 27-24 win with a 1-yard touchdown run with 1:04 to play. He carried the Bills (28 of 35, 273 yards, one touchdown) on a day when the Bills’ running game was bottled up.
Brady is probably best known for directing LSU’s offense to a national championship with Joe Burrow — one of the best offenses in NCAA history. He has wisely constructed an offense under coach Sean McDermott in which he gets out of the way and allows Allen to perform to his physical best.
4. Chicago Bears: coach Ben Johnson, quarterback Caleb Williams
Johnson may get a little too cute at times and his reckless aggression on fourth down could eventually prove costly. But there’s no doubt he can operate with a balanced run-pass offense or that he’s put Williams in position to deliver in the fourth quarter time after time.
Williams can turn nothing into something with downfield or crossfield passes like a vintage Patrick Mahomes, damn the footwork and fundamentals if he’s chased out of the pocket. If Williams ever starts piling up the short completions at a higher percentage, the Bears are set for a long time.
5. Denver Broncos: coach Sean Payton, quarterback Bo Nix
Nix looked overmatched as a rookie in the wild-card round in a 31-7 loss to Buffalo last season, so coming in off a first-round bye as the top seed is a big moment for the Broncos. Denver won the last Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium in February 2016 with a sore-armed and end-of-the-line Peyton Manning simply managing the game. They’ll need more from Nix.
Giving Payton the benefit of the doubt here because he’s got a Super Bowl (XLIV in 2010). His quarterback then was Drew Brees, one of the better mid-range throwers in NFL history. Nix is more of a physical specimen but Payton believes in him enough to let him throw an NFL-high 612 passes.
6. Seattle Seahawks: offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, quarterback Sam Darnold
Kubiak, a hot head coaching candidate and brother of 49ers’ offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak, runs his offense to the specifications of defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald. Darnold was an upgrade over Geno Smith and has won the Seahawks over with his cool hand and leadership skills.
Darnold is a turnover waiting to happen, however, whether it be a lost fumble or an interception. Kubiak found that easy to navigate with a conservative game plan in the season finale at the 49ers with a rushing attack that had 39 attempts for 180 yards while the Seahawks’ defense was muffling the opposition. Whether Kubiak and Darnold can lead a come-from-behind playoff win is a drama still to play out.
7. New England Patriots: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, quarterback Drake Maye
The Patriots’ 16-9 wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers was less than inspiring but at least got Maye baptised into the world of playoff football. His regular season was superb — he’ll probably be the runner-up to Stafford in the MVP race.
Don’t judge McDaniels’ ability to run an offense by his performance as a head coach, where he pretty much alienated players and media. After Maye’s rookie season (3-9) as a starter, there were legitimate questions as to whether he was worth the No. 3 pick in the draft. Those questions no longer exist, with McDaniels a big reason as he runs the offense for coach Mike Vrabel.
8. Houston Texans: offensive coordinator Nick Caley, quarterback C.J. Stroud
The score was 30-6 over Pittsburgh thanks to a suffocating defensive performance, but it was a spotty offensive performance in Caley’s first playoff game as a play-caller. There was an ill-fated, slow-developing flea flicker that resulted in a Stroud lost fumble, plus another lost fumble and an interception deep in Pittsburgh territory.
Caley is schooled under McVay, having served two years as the Rams’ passing game coordinator and tight ends coach. And Stroud is one of the better downfield throwers in the NFL when given time. But this team will survive and thrive by avoiding turnovers, letting its defense do the work.
NFC matchups
No. 6 49ers (13-5) at No. 1 Seattle (14-3), Saturday, 5 p.m., Fox
The 49ers come in on short rest with a Saturday game following a cross-country win over the Eagles and are none too pleased about it in the front office, although the players pretty much seem ready to take on all comers. The second-half defensive performance, during which the 49ers gave up just 119 yards and six points, was the season’s best for that unit.
The Seahawks shut the 49ers down defensively, winning 13-3 in the regular-season finale and earning the top seed and first-round bye, which should give them an advantage in terms of having fresh legs. No need for the Seahawks to change much. They’ll run it at the 49ers, challenge their defense and rely on their own defense to bottle up Purdy and Co.
No. 5 L.A. Rams (13-5) at No. 2 Chicago (12-6), Sunday, 3:30 p.m., NBC
It’s hard to look at this game and see where the Bears have the advantage in personnel. On defense in particular, the Rams are superior. Stafford is a very good cold-weather quarterback, and judging by the way the 49ers sliced and diced the Bears’ defense in Week 17, it’ll be a big game for wide receivers Puka Nacua and Adams.
As for Chicago, it has been a magic carpet ride like that of the 49ers, only a healthier one. Anything is possible.
AFC matchups
No. 5 Houston (12-5) vs. No. 2 New England (15-3), Sunday, noon, ESPN
This one has 10-7 written all over it if the wild-card round for both teams is any indication. When New England linebacker Robert Spillane said after a 16-9 win over the Chargers that L.A. “had no idea” how to deal with their defensive schemes, it suggests that the Vrabel-coached Patriots are taking a page from the Bill Belichick era.
It’s also an indictment of the Jim Harbaugh-coached Chargers and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Roman took the fall and was fired Tuesday. The Texans are capable defensively of stopping anybody and Will Anderson Jr. could be this year’s Von Miller, the MVP in the last Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium.
No. 6 Buffalo (13-5) at No. 1 Denver (14-3), Saturday, 1:30 p.m., CBS
Allen took a beating against Jacksonville, but there’s nothing to indicate he can’t take it. Without Mahomes around to ruin their championship dreams, Bills Mafia will be crushed if they don’t get past the Broncos after hammering them in last year’s wild-card round.
It’s a different Denver team, however, with 68 sacks and the ability to take over a game.