Air cargo industry ends 2025 on a high despite fuel price rise

Global air cargo demand rose by 5.5 per cent in November 2025 compared with the same month a year earlier, as shippers prioritised timely deliveries ahead of the year-end holiday season, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Total capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 4.7 per cent year on year, lagging demand growth.

As a result, the global cargo load factor edged up by 0.4 percentage points to 49.1 per cent.

International cargo demand rose by 6.9 per cent, while capacity for international operations expanded by 6.5 per cent.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said air cargo demand was lifted by pre-holiday shipping, with “strong emerging market demand” and “selective Middle Eastern growth” offsetting weakness in the Americas as markets adjust to the new US tariff regime.

He added that trade re-routing helped keep fourth-quarter performance resilient, and said the strong finish to 2025 “bodes well” for the sector entering the new year.

The broader operating environment was mixed. Global goods trade grew by 2 per cent year on year in October, while jet fuel prices rose 5.9 per cent in November despite falling crude prices, with refinery disruptions and tighter supply pushing crack spreads to close to double last year’s levels.

Manufacturing sentiment strengthened, with the PMI rising for a fourth consecutive month to 51.17 in November.

New export orders improved to 49.87, although they remained below the 50-point expansion threshold amid tariff-related uncertainty.

Asia-Pacific carriers recorded the strongest demand among the major markets, with cargo volumes up 10.3 per cent year on year in November, while capacity rose 8.4 per cent.

European airlines posted a 5.8 per cent increase in demand, with capacity up 4.1 per cent.

Middle Eastern carriers saw demand rise 7.4 per cent, although capacity expanded faster, up 11 per cent, putting pressure on load factors.

African airlines delivered the fastest growth globally, with demand up 15.6 per cent and capacity up 18.1 per cent.

By contrast, carriers in North America recorded a 1.6 per cent decline in demand, with capacity down 2.3 per cent.

Latin American and Caribbean airlines saw the weakest performance, with demand down 4.8 per cent and capacity down 3.0 per cent.

Across trade lanes, IATA said volumes increased on all major corridors in November, led by within-Asia traffic, up 15.8 per cent, and Europe-Asia, which rose 11.7 per cent to extend its run of growth to 33 consecutive months.

Middle East–Asia also remained firm, up 11.1 per cent, while Asia–North America returned to growth, rising 1.8 per cent.

Within Europe, however, demand fell 4.9 per cent, marking a fourth consecutive month of decline.