What the numbers say about Liverpool’s chances at the Emirates

Liverpool head to the Emirates tonight with numbers, narratives and recent form all colliding around one of the season’s defining Premier League fixtures.

Data analysts have already weighed in on the meeting, with Opta publishing a detailed pre-match forecast that frames us as clear outsiders despite our historical dominance in this fixture.

According to Opta’s supercomputer, Arsenal hold a 61.7% chance of victory, with our own win probability rated at just 18.1%, as reported by Opta ahead of Thursday’s game.

That projection reflects the current league table, with us sitting fourth on 34 points from 20 matches, while the hosts lead the way on 48 points after 20 games.

Liverpool vs Arsenal history challenges the prediction

While the model favours Arsenal, our record against them continues to defy logic and form.

Against no side have Arsenal lost more Premier League matches than they have against Liverpool, with 26 defeats, and we are chasing an eighth Premier League-era double over them following the 1-0 win at Anfield in August.

That victory, sealed by a Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick, reinforced why this fixture still carries psychological weight for the north London side.

Arsenal have also failed to keep a clean sheet against us in their last 20 league meetings, a run stretching back to 2015.

Those historical trends help explain why Szoboszlai recently dismissed suggestions that Arsenal are already champions, insisting instead that they are facing the reigning title holders.

Liverpool weaknesses Opta highlights before Arsenal test

Opta’s preview does not ignore our issues, particularly from set-pieces.

We have conceded 13 Premier League goals from dead-ball situations this season, the joint-most in the division, with 46.4% of all goals conceded coming via that route.

By contrast, Arsenal lead the league for both goals and expected goals from set-pieces, an area that has seen us sack our set piece coach and still seemingly remain in the market for a replacement.

However, there are attacking signs too.

Florian Wirtz arrives in north London with three goal involvements in his last four league appearances, while Cody Gakpo has scored in three of his last four away league matches in London.

Opta may see this as an uphill task, but history, context and our ability to rise to nights like this suggest the story is far from written.

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