The Trump Effect: One Day After Maduro Capture, Reports Say Iran’s Supreme Leader Preparing to Flee Country to Moscow

Call it the Trump Effect. Or the Maduro Effect, if you don’t like naming it after Orange Man Bad.

The point is, if a report in Sunday’s Times of London is to be believed, it’s very real — and it could mean regime change is coming to Iran the same way it came to Venezuela.

Just one day after the daring capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro in an early-morning raid, the Times quoted intelligence sources which said that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 86-year-old supreme leader of Iran’s theocratic regime, had formulated a back-up plan to get out of Dodge (or Tehran, in this case) if the protests against his regime, which began in late December, intensified.

Mass uprisings in Iran have been nothing new, especially under Khamenei. In 1999, 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022, Khamenei’s government has faced massive popular opposition; it’s as regular as the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano, almost, only if the swallows were forced to wear the niqab and were gunned down by the IRGC if they did not disperse.

This spate of protests is fueled by the same reasons past protests have broken out, as well: economic collapse and political repression. But, for several reasons, things could be different.

First, the country’s paper tiger status was fully confirmed with the 12-Day War, in which Israeli and U.S. forces were able to operate without even the slightest resistance inside Iran’s airspace, crippling the country’s military and nuclear facilities.

Second, Trump has taken an active interest in the protests, saying on Truth Social that “[i]f Iran [shoots] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.”

Third — well, you probably know by now.

Nicolas Maduro on board the USS Iwo Jima. pic.twitter.com/omF2UpDJhA

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 3, 2026

And while it might take more than a few helicopters and well-placed bombs to get the aged Khamenei and his cronies out of Iran and into Gitmo, the ayatollah apparently isn’t taking any chances and is considering going the Bashar al-Assad route.

From the Times:

Khamenei, 86, plans to escape Tehran with a close circle of up to 20 aides and family, should he see that the army and security called on to quell the unrest are deserting, defecting or failing to follow orders.

“The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba,” an intelligence source told The Times.

Beni Sabti, who served for decades in Israeli intelligence after fleeing the regime eight years after the Islamic revolution, told The Times that Khamenei would flee to Moscow as “there is no other place for him.”

The plan would only be activated if he felt his security forces were starting to disobey his orders. While the Ayatollah keeps close tabs on his inner circle and desertion and defection are not easy things to accomplish, things are getting dire in Iran, particularly with the fall of Venezuela.

In addition, the country’s strict moral police has been reportedly loosening its tight control on the populace of late, reportedly to help shore up the rule of president Masoud Pezeshkian’s government after he took over from hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a 2024 helicopter crash.

However, given that has not seemed to have stemmed the tide, sources say that the Ayatollah and his inner circle “have plotted an exit route out of Tehran should they feel the need to escape,” including “gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage.”

There are complications to the plan, notably the fact that many of these government officials have children or relatives living abroad in countries allied with the West, including the United States itself. (A joke passed along to me by an acquaintance who once worked with Iranian refugees about what they said was the real chant of the country’s political elite: “Death to America — but not before we get our kids out!”)

Nevertheless, if one is to judge by his socials, Khamenei knows the writing is on the wall after Saturday’s capture of Maduro:

Those who argued that the solution to the country’s problems was in negotiating with the US have seen what happened. In the midst of Iran negotiating with the US, the US government was busy behind the scenes preparing plans for war.

— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) January 3, 2026

Yes, well, Venezuela negotiated in bad faith to buy time, and they — to use the second half of a certain acronym — found out.

Perhaps Khamenei will, too. Or perhaps he’ll find out what Moscow is like in January. Either way is fine by me, and I suspect it’ll be fine by Iranians, too.

This article appeared originally on The Western Journal.

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