'Not the way most think': GOP pollster shows surprising way Venezuela move may hurt Trump

Donald Trump's actions in capturing the leader of Venezuela and his wife will affect voters among a key demographic, but not necessarily in the way most would expect, a GOP strategist said this weekend.

Mike Madrid, who served as the Golden State's GOP political director before co-founding the group of current and former anti-Trump Republicans known as the Lincoln Project, has previously commented on Trump's political tactics.

This weekend, however, Madrid focused on Trump's Venezuela move and its impact on the Latino vote.

"Venezuelans make up a very small portion of the total U.S. Latino electorate, accounting for approximately 1% of the U.S. Hispanic population as of 2021 data. As for voters it’s probably half a percent above or below that - most of it located in Florida," he said. "What about Cubans? Both Cubans and Dominicans each make up less than 7% of eligible Latino voters. Again, Cubans are most determinative in Florida."

He asked, "So will the Venezuelan situation impact the Latino vote?"

According to Madrid, "If there is an impact nationally it certainly won’t have anything to do with Latino affinity across national origin or sympathies for or against ‘socialism’."

"That’s Cold War nonsense usually espoused by a small handful of anti-communists from those countries and I agree with them," he added.

Madrid went on to say the action by Trump could push Latino voters away from the president, but more so because it relates to government overreach than anything Venezuela specific.

"At best this likely translates into the growing concerns about ‘government over reach’ and the broader American concern about Trumps extra-Constitutional actions. So yes, these actions could marginally impact the Latino vote but not the way most think," the strategist wrote. "Latino voter motivation remains overwhelmingly a function of Trump's failures on the economy - vastly outpacing immigration, Venezuela military action and yes, even ICE raids. The GOP mantra that Latinos hate socialism isn’t backed up by data - doesn’t mean we’re for it either."

In conclusion, the analyst wrote, "Finally, for perspective if you’re looking for the impact of Cubans and Venezuelan voters moving for and against Trump because of this action, cost of living, ICE, etc… That’s 2-3% of the national Latino vote - at most - most of which is in Florida."