Why weather intelligence needs to be a priority for the Golden Dome

During the first week of his second term, President Trump signed an executive order (EO) directing the development and deployment of a next generation missile defense shield to deter and defend against a foreign aerial attack on the Homeland. This system is now touted as the Golden Dome for America, and the Department of Defense (DoD) is preparing to award multiple contracts over a ten year period with a maximum combined value of $151 billion.

As with the employment of any DoD capability, effective operation of the Golden Dome will require the consideration of environmental conditions. Such weather intelligence has been a decisive factor throughout American military history, from U.S. Navy Captain Thomas MacDonough’s knowledge of the prevailing winds over Lake Champlain that enabled him to secure a victory over the British during the War of 1812, the forecast for a break in the weather that gave the Allies the element of surprise during the Normandy landings in 1944, to the anticipation of a days-long sandstorm at the outset of Operation Iraqi Freedom that allowed air strike assets to replace laser-guided munitions with GPS variants and provide continuous support for coalition forces on the ground.[i]

The kind of environmental information that the Golden Dome will require depends on both tactics and the target. To defend against aerial threats prior to their launch, such as a mobile ballistic missile launcher, cloud cover could prevent identification and targeting with optical or infrared sensors. Similarly, for terminal phase interception, heavy precipitation would hamper the use of the same types of sensors.

Other considerations depend on the type of platforms integrated into the system. U.S. Navy guided missile destroyers will almost certainly be incorporated into the architecture as they are doing so today to defend Israel against Iranian ballistic missiles. High sea states can impact the air defense mission of these ships by generating sea clutter in their Aegis radar returns.

Likewise, Israel has received air support from U.S. Navy aircraft carrier-based fighter jets, which have specific launch, recovery, and operating limits for cross winds. visibility, and air temperature, depending on their payload configurations.

Lastly, the shield will include non-kinetic capabilities such as electromagnetic warfare technology, which is significantly affected by the physical environment.

Based on these considerations, as well as the incredibly expansive threat envelope, the Golden Dome will require an entirely different level of environmental information delivery.  According to current U.S. military doctrine, meteorologists and oceanographers are almost always in the loop when providing decision support. That will not be an option when dealing with potentially hundreds of hypersonic threats across multiple continents at any given time. Every nanosecond of delay could be deadly.

Fortunately, there is a solution to the problem of getting the Golden Dome the right type of weather information at the right time. Recent applications of artificial intelligence (AI) to weather data quality control, numerical modelling, and the development of agentic decision aids are realizing remarkable improvements in accuracy and impact that were only dreamed about a decade ago.

For the Golden Dome, incorporation of weather intelligence can be done seamlessly by integrating it within the command and control (C2) component of the system. Such a module could leverage weather, ocean, and space weather data from the existing global network of federal, academic, and proprietary sources, just as the larger system receives threat information from its multi-domain sensor array.

AI-enabled weather models would then feed automated tactical decision support tools to optimize sensor settings, weapon selection, and for mobile platforms, flight path or navigation route.

Such an approach aligns directly with the DoD’s intent for the missile shield to “provide rapid delivery of innovative capabilities to the warfighter with increased speed and agility, leveraging artificial intelligence and … agile processes in the acquisition, development, fielding, and sustainment of these capabilities.”

Of course, the inspiration for the Golden Dome is Israel’s Iron Dome, which claims to have an “all weather” capability. It is true that the system can function in any environmental condition, but a number of factors can degrade its accuracy. Wind and turbulence can alter the course of an incoming missile or drone from its trajectory, causing the Iron Dome to miss. Similarly, its interception systems employ both radar and optical detection, so clouds, fog, and precipitation can impair their performance.

The Golden Dome will encounter far greater challenges. Not only is the total land area of all U.S. states and territories 500 times larger than Israel’s, America experiences some of the most severe weather anywhere on Earth, from North Atlantic hurricanes and Western Pacific typhoons to Alaskan snowstorms and Central Plains tornado outbreaks. Factoring in the impacts of such hazards will give the U.S. a decisive advantage over enemy threats that do not.

As the gamut of U.S. defense contractors gear up to compete for the Golden Dome, every type of advanced technology will be on the table, including space-based sensors, hypersonic interceptors, all domain phased array radars, offensive cyber capabilities, and even high energy lasers. All of them would be wise to include AI-enabled weather intelligence in their bids.

Rear Admiral (ret.) Tim Gallaudet, Ph.D. is a former acting and Deputy Administrator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), acting Under Secretary and Assistant Secretary of Commerce, and Oceanographer of the Navy. He is a strategic advisor for the commercial weather company Tomorrow.io.