Kyler Murray's Cardinals will be better than you think in 2024. Or at least more fun

Unless you're a Cardinals die-hard, in which case they may meet expectations.

The Arizona Cardinals had so much to do in 2024.

2023 was a disaster in almost every way that counts. The team went 4-13, but that wasn’t enough to lock down a top three pick that could be auctioned off to the highest bidder in a quarterback-heavy draft. Kyler Murray’s recovery from a torn ACL left Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune to start games at quarterback. Only one team in the NFL gave up more points.

On top of that, the deal they’d made with the Houston Texans in last year’s draft failed to pay expected dividends. The Texans’ rise to AFC South champions meant they got last year’s third overall pick (and 2023’s defensive rookie of the year) Will Anderson Jr. for the price of the 12th and 27th picks in the 2023 and 2024 drafts, respectively — a solid deal that wasn’t quite the windfall Arizona had hoped.

Fortunately, there were still plenty of assets at general manager Monti Ossenfort’s disposal to dig his team out of the NFC West’s basement. The Cardinals’ $56 million of cap space was a top seven mark in the league heading into the offseason. And while the fourth overall pick wouldn’t get them in position for a top three quarterback, they didn’t need one with Kyler Murray under contract thanks to a massive extension. Arizona was cleared to add the best players available when it came to boosting their roster, either on the open market or in the draft.

That’s pretty much what they did.

Arizona’s offense should immediately improve even without adding established veteran talent

First, don’t let pre-draft smoke screens tell you differently. Even in a stacked class of wide receiver talent, Marvin Harrison Jr. was the clear top wideout.

Even better, he fit an immediate need for the Cardinals. Arizona’s most targeted wide receiver in 2023 was Marquise Brown, who is now a Kansas City Chief. Number two on the list was Rondale Moore, who was traded to the Atlanta Falcons.

Need met opportunity in a massive way to give the Cardinals, and Murray, a viable WR1. The rookie will not only lift the offense but save a ton of cap space going forward. In a league where $35 million just became the annual going rate for an elite receiver, Harrison Jr. will cost just under $35.4 million… for the next four years.

That’s vital for a team with a quarterback whose salary cap hits the next five seasons vacillate between $43 and $53 million. But Murray won’t just be relying on a first-year stud to lift his offense.

Arziona’s overall target leader last year was Trey McBride, who was served a platter of unappetizing quarterbacks most of 2023 and turned it into a feast:

Trey McBride finished the 2023 regular season 2nd in Yards Per Route Run among Tight Ends.

The Cardinals moved McBride around the formation, threw screens to him, and he was able to take advantage of some of the matchups he saw pic.twitter.com/pWvjXwsJfV

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) June 17, 2024

His average target distance was six yards downfield but his average catch sprang for more than 10 yards per reception owing to sneaky impressive run after catch skills. Pro Football Reference credited him with 10 broken tackles last season after recording zero as a rookie in 2022.

The other arrow in Murray’s quiver will be Michael Wilson, whose 9.7 yards per target ranked second among all rookies to only Green Bay Packer Dontayvion Wicks. Consistency was right about where you’d expect from the 13th wideout selected last spring, but he seemed to find a connection with his veteran QB late in the year. After zero catches on seven targets his first two games with Murray in the lineup, Wilson had 12 targets, 10 catches, 130 yards and a touchdown in the final two.

That’s an extremely fun young lineup of targets, albeit a thin one. There’s also help coming to the backfield. James Conner was quietly great last season, running for more than 1,000 yards in only 13 games. His 1.02 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt were fourth best in the NFL last season, per Next Gen Stats.

Conner is also 29 years old, has more than 1,100 NFL carries under his belt and offered little in the receiving game, though 13 of his 27 catches came after Murray’s return in the last four weeks of the year. Fortunately, the Cardinals have more help en route. Trey Benson was arguably the top rookie running back in this year’s draft class and was the second one off the board when Arizona took him in the third round.

Benson’s size and aggressive running gives Murray a thunder/thunder combination to tenderize defenses and set up his passing game before taking his own scrambling ability into consideration. Benson also has 4.3-second 40 speed, shifty lateral quickness and the ability to contribute as a receiver. He’s another link in this exciting chain of young playmakers.

Then there’s the guy in the middle of it all, hoping to turn potential into production.

Kyler Murray was quietly decent to finish a lost 2023

2023 didn’t offer Murray much but the chance to build confidence in his surgically repaired knee. His first five games back failed to paint him as a quarterback worthy of a $230 million contract. Though Arizona went 2-3 in that span, he threw only four touchdowns against four interceptions. He added three more scores on the ground, but his 31 rushing yards per game were still below his career average of 39.

In terms of overall efficiency, he was somewhere between Desmond Ridder and Bailey Zappe:

Things changed over the final three weeks of the season. The schedule got easier, for one, but Murray still had to face a Chicago Bears defense that was playing like a top three unit to finish the year, a talented-but-spiraling Philadelphia Eagles and a Seattle Seahawks team still in the playoff hunt.

Murray threw six touchdowns against a single interception in that span. His passer rating rose from 78.4 to 108.3. His deep game was still a mess — he completed only three of 12 passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield — but he found a way to maximize a roster with a few nice young prospects and a whole bunch of replacement level players.

Here’s where he ranked among starting quarterbacks over those final three weeks of 2023.

That’s a small sample size and those aren’t world beater numbers, but they’re above average for a quarterback playing with one of the league’s least recognizable supporting casts. Now Murray gets to add an elite young wideout to the mix who can crush defenders at every level. He can pair Harrison Jr. with McBride’s reliable short-range game and Wilson’s budding deep/intermediate range savagery. He’s also got two new(ish) tackles in Jonah Williams and Paris Johnson to keep his edges intact and create the space he needs to rise to his contract.

There’s potential here! Modest potential, sure, but the 2024 Cardinals could be extremely fun to watch. Which is great, because that focus on young playmakers has left the defense in a tight spot. Signing Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols should help boost a deficient defensive front, but this remains a team for which no player who started double-digit games had more than 3.5 sacks.

There will be immediate pressure on rookies Darius Robinson and Max Melton to step into starting roles and perform. This is, without question, asking a lot even before we get to the competition in the AFC West, where every non-Cardinals team finished above .500 last winter.

That suggests 2024 may be a year of modest improvement in Arizona rather than a stunning turnaround. But given the relative weakness of the rest of the NFC, there’s a chance that some young contributors could push the Cardinals into a Wild Card spot ahead of schedule.

And if they don’t, they should be fun as hell to watch along the way.