What if the Indians Traded Their Entire Farm?
This is absurd, right? No team would ever trade their entire farm system, or at least all of their prospects that matter. But what if Chris Antonetti from the the year 2035 came to current Chris Antonetti and told him all of his prospects were going to bust and he needed to trade them all while they still held value?
Let's assume he somehow gets the ownership and the rest of the front office on board. Antonetti and assistant general manager Mike Chernoff prioritize obtaining relatively cheap, controllable players in order to maximize the current window of contention that likely runs through 2020 or 2021. Who is the first guy they go after, the guy they want the most?
First, let's take a look at the Indians strengths and weaknesses to get a better idea of which position(s) stand to benefit the most from an upgrade. The rotation is the biggest strength of the club, consisting of 2017 AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, who finished 4th in the Cy Young voting, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, Mike Clevinger, and Josh Tomlin. This group put together one of the best seasons of the last century, posting a combined 23.1 fWAR and combined to start 158 of the club's 162 games (Ryan Merritt accounted for the other 4) and project for 17.1 fWAR for 2018, according to FanGraphs depth charts. In fact, this group is so strong that the Tribe's front office could actually consider trading Danny Salazar or even Mike Clevinger in the right deal.
The infield is the Tribe's next biggest strength, posting a combined 16.8 fWAR, though, this group just lost one of it's core members in Carlos Santana, who signed a 3 year $60 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies last Friday. Yan Gomes and Roberto perez make up the catching duo for at least the next 2 years depending upon whether the Indians pick up Gomes' 2020 and 2021 options. With the Indians clearly preferring to keep MVP candidate at his best position, 2B, this leaves Jason Kipnis without a firm position on the roster. SS is set with cornerstone superstar Francisco Lindor manning the position for years to come and 3B currently sees Yandy Diaz to get most of the playing time at the hot corner, though upgrading there would be a secondary or tertiary consideration. 1B definitely poses one of the biggest upgrades on the team, though. (THIS JUST IN, INDIANS SIGN 1B YONDER ALONSO TO A TWO YEAR DEAL WORTH $16 MILLION).
In the bullpen the Indians currently have cheat code Andrew Miller and criminally underrated closer Cody Allen to go along with middle relievers Dan Otero, Nick Goody, Zach McAllister, whichever of Salazar/Tomlin/Clevinger doesn't make the rotation, and LOOGY Tyler "0.00" Olson. This regimen just lost Bryan Shaw and trade deadline acquisition Joe Smith to free agency, but still seems filled up at the moment. Beyond 2018 they will lose Allen and Miller, so finding a replacement for either of those two is something to think about after other positions of need are filled.
The outfield is collectively the weakest link for the Tribe. As a group they project for just 5 fWAR in 2018, according to FanGraphs. The Indians have committed to Michael Brantley in LF for 2018 by picking up his $12 million team option. Beyond that, though, they will need a new LF in 2019 and beyond. CF currently consists of speed demon Bradley Zimmer and RF by Lonnie Chisenhall and a combination of Brandon Guyer and Abraham Almonte to form a platoon. CF and RF are both places where Cleveland should look to upgrade. So who's the number 1 target?
Christian Yelich OF, Miami Marlins: Yelich is under team control for 5 more years during which his contract pays him $58.25 million dollars (the 5th year is a $15 million team option). He is going into his age 26 year old season and projects for an even 4.0 fWAR, coming off back-to-back 4.5 fWAR seasons. He played mainly CF in Miami the past season, but Cleveland would likely have to switch to RF, he played LF and was a much better defender in his time with the Marlins, and then move back to LF in 2019 to fill Brantley's vacancy. This would shift Brantley to 1B. The trade to acquire him: Derek Jeter wants young starting pitching and the Indians have an expendable arm who could be had for the right price in Danny Salazar. Of course Salazar isn't enough, so the Indians also part with blue chip, can't miss (or at least that what Derek Jeter thinks) catching prospect Francisco Mejia and lower level pitching prospect Juan Hillman. This trade alone takes the indians OF from 5 fWAR to one worth 7 wins and a cornerstone for years to come, while being able to move a former MVP candidate's bat to 1B.
Chris Archer SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Archer is going into his age 29 year old season and is still under control for 4 more years, even though it seems like he's been with the Rays forever. he projects for 4.4 fWAR in 2018 The deal will pay him $30.25 million and the last two years are via team options, both of which must be picked up or turned down after the 2019 season. He would be an incredible acquisition to replace Salazar's spot and is controllable for an extra year. He would slot in behind Carrasco to form a super-rotation of Kluber, Carrasco, Archer, Bauer, and Clevinger, with Tomlin moving to the 'pen. The trade: The Indians give up one of the top pitching prospects in the game in 20 year old Triston McKenzie to headline the deal, SS Yu-Cheng Chang, 1B Bobby Bradley, OF Greg Allen, and SP James Karinchak. This is a haul, Tampa Bay gets Cleveland's #2, 3, 4, 7, and 15 prospects as ranked by MLB.com Pipeline in their mid-season rankings.
Salary Dump to the New York Mets: The trade: unfortunately, with Ramirez playing 2B, Diaz at 3B, and the OF full, the Indians have to trade Jason Kipnis and his $30 million salary over the next two years. The Indians also add Zach McAllister to the deal because the Mets want a good, cheap, bullpen arm for 2018. In return, the Indians get 22 year old RHP Marcos Molina and 3B prospect David Thompson, This unloads about $16 million worth of salary for 2018, $14.67 million in 2019, and $2.5 million in 2020 from Kipnis' team option. The Mets don't give up a lot, but get their 2B and a decent reliever.
Jackie Bradley Jr. OF, Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox are going to sign JD Martinez and everyone knows it, so Bradley Jr. becomes expandable with JD, Betts, and Benintendi filling up the Boston outfield for the foreseeable future. He is also coming off somewhat of a down year so his value is down a little bit, presenting the perfect opportunity for Antonetti to unload some of his middle-tier prospects for a great defensive CF with three years of control (and maybe even extend him . . .?). The trade: the Indians send OF prospect Will Benson, RHP Marcos Molina, and OF prospect Quentin Holmes. Bradley Jr. becomes the new CF while Zimmer spends some more time in AAA to work on his strikeouts and plate discipline and comes up as soon as a need arises. Caveat alert: Zimmer does not count as a prospect even though he is sent back to AAA for a little while.
Dellin Betances RP, New York Yankees: The Yankees have really soured on Betances after his end of the year struggles and have mistreated him beginning with the arbitration incident last year. He was elite, in fact he was one of the best relievers in the game from 2014-2016, posting 8.5 fWAR over those 3 years. He has two years of control left before he becomes a free agent after the 2019 season. He effectively takes Shaw's place in the bullpen, but his spot is vacated by the trade of McAllister. The trade: the Indians send 3B prospect Nolan Jones, SS prospect Willi Castro, and RH pitching prospects Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale. The Indians back end of the bullpen in 2018 becomes possibly the best in the game with Miller, Allen, and Betances and beances helps bridge the gap in 2019 after Miller and Allen leave via free agency.
Honestly, would you hate this? The Indians would be possibly the best team in baseball heading into 2018 and would have a great OF under control through 2020 (and two thirds of it through 2022), a rotation of Kluber, Carrasco, Archer, Bauer, Clevinger through 2020, an infield including Lindor, ramirez, and Diaz through 2021, Perez through (likely) 2022, and Antonetti is always great at building cheap, dominant bullpens so that weakness beyond 2019 should be confidently remedied.
Oh and Antonetti learns that 2017 international signing OF George Valera becomes the next Mike Trout after he debuts in 2022, so there's that, too.