The one-vote win for Democrats in a Virginia state house race may have just slipped away

A panel of judges reverted a Democratic lead in a key House of Delegates race to a tie.

When the recount of the vote tally for a key race in last month’s Virginia House of Delegates elections concluded on Tuesday, a Democratic challenger ended up leading a Republican incumbent by just one vote — an outcome that would have deprived Republicans of their majority in the chamber.

But in another twist Wednesday, that one-vote victory reverted back to a tied race, putting control of the chamber in question again.

A three-judge panel in charge of certifying the recount’s outcome found that one ballot for the Republican candidate hadn’t been counted — but should have been. (The person filling out the ballot appeared to have marked it for the Democrat, but then crossed that out and marked it for the Republican instead.)

So the race between Delegate David Yancey (R) and Shelly Simonds (D) is tied at 11,608 votes for each candidate. And under Virginia state law, that means the winner will be determined by a random drawing (scheduled for next week). Things are even more complicated than that, since according to the Washington Post, the loser of that drawing can request another recount.

The gist is that we probably won’t know who won this race for a while— and, accordingly, whether next year’s Virginia House of Delegates is likely to have a 51 to 49 Republican majority, or a 50-50 even split between the parties.

Democrats made big statehouse gains in Virginia’s elections — but some races remained to be decided

Back in November, during Virginia’s 2017 election night, it was clear Democrats had not only held the governorship but had made huge, stunning gains in the state’s House of Delegates — the lower chamber of the state legislature.

Yet it wasn’t clear exactly how huge those gains were — or whether they’d be sufficient to break the Republican Party’s hold on the chamber, because some close races were headed for recounts.

Going in, the GOP held a 66-to-34 majority. And when the dust settled after the initial days of vote counting, it looked like they had just barely held on to it. Democrats had flipped at least 15 GOP-held seats, far more than political analysts expected beforehand. Still, in initial tallies, Republican candidates led in races for 51 seats in the chamber, compared to 49 for Democrats.

But some of these races were remarkably close — particularly the one in the 94th District, representing the city of Newport News in the southeast of the state.

There, incumbent Delegate David Yancey (R) led his challenger Shelly Simonds (D) by a mere 10 votes heading into a recount. That’s the sort of margin that often shifts during a recount, due to errors in the initial tally.

The 94th District recount tipped the race to the Democrat. Then the judges made it tied again.

So the recount for the 94th District took place Tuesday — with observers and lawyers from both campaigns, as well as many journalists, in attendance so as to prevent any mischief. And at the end, the margin shifted just enough to give Simonds the victory — 11,608 votes to 11,607.

That, it seemed, would have flipped a 16th GOP-held seat to the Democrats and put the House of Delegates at 50 seats for each party.

But when the outcome was presented to judges, Yancey’s campaign argued that one ballot hadn’t been counted, but should have been. The ballot had bubbles for both Yancey and Simonds filled in, but there was a line drawn through the bubble for Simonds — suggesting that the voter may have crossed out his or her Simonds vote.

The Virginia Pilot’s Jordan Pascale obtained the ballot:

The recount overseers hadn’t counted this ballot, but the judges sided with Yancey and agreed that that seems like it was meant to be a vote cast for him. And since that would make the race tied at 11,608 votes to 11,608, they declined to certify a winner for now. What follows will be a random drawing to determine the winner, and then potentially yet another recount.

It should also be noted that there are still two more House of Delegates races that technically have not yet been resolved. In one, for the 68th District, a Democratic challenger, Dawn Adams, leads by 336 votes. A recount there is scheduled for today, but that’s a big enough lead that she’s expected to hold on to that pickup (and I’ve already counted her seat as a Democratic pickup for the purposes of this article’s tallies).

Then there’s controversy over a race in the 28th District. Republican candidate Bob Thomas won his race there by just 82 votes — but at least 147 people in the district were given the wrong ballot and voted with it, preventing their votes from being cast in this House of Delegates race. Democrats have sued and requested a new election be held, and the case is scheduled for a hearing on January 5.

So it’s theoretically possible that, if Simonds comes out on top in the 94th, and if there’s a revote in the 28th, Democrats could have a 50 to 49 House of Delegates majority next year (with the other seat to be determined in a special election). It’s also possible that, if Yancey wins in the 94th, and Thomas’s victory in the 28th is upheld, Republicans will hold a 51 to 49 majority.

We don’t yet know how things will shake out in the House of Delegates. But Republicans currently have just a 21-to-19-vote state Senate majority. (The state Senate wasn’t up for election this November, and won’t be until 2019.) So however things shake out, Democratic Gov.-elect Ralph Northam will have to deal with a very narrowly divided legislature to sign anything into law.