Oregon season preview: Game-by-game predictions, program trajectory, coach and quarterback assessment and more
The Ducks just missed the College Football Playoff last year with quarterback Justin Herbert and a stellar offensive line. Those positions are fraught with uncertainty as delayed 2020 season begins.
*** The Hotline’s rollout of season previews continues with Oregon and will churn into next week with predictions for each team and the division races, an analysis of quarterback depth, bowl picks, our all-conference selections, a ranking of top newcomers and more.
In our breakdown of the Pac-12 division races last season, we pegged Oregon to win the North and wrote the following:
“When projecting division winners, the Hotline usually leans to the team with the best pairing of quarterback and offensive line. No matter the scheme, skill-position talent or defensive dominance, you can’t win on the road in October and November without that combo. The Ducks have it to a greater degree than anyone else in the North.”
Our areas of emphasis haven’t changed in 2020, but Oregon’s personnel certainly has.
The Ducks are replacing their star quarterback, their all-galaxy left tackle and the rest of their superb offensive line.
And they’re supposed to pick up where they left off, with another division title, another conference championship and another run at the College Football Playoff?
We don’t see it.
From our vantage point, the Ducks aren’t merely the most overrated team in the conference; they’re one of the most overrated in the country.
They have a new quarterback. They have a new offensive line. They have three new starters in the secondary.
Quarterback, offensive line, secondary:
The units requiring the greatest level of cohesiveness and experience … the units that have the lowest margin for error, where mistakes cost you yards, possessions, or points … those are the units where Oregon is the least experienced, where it has the lowest degree of cohesion.
Yes, the Ducks have recruited very well.
Yes, the tailbacks are top notch, the receivers are talented, and the front seven is the best in the conference.
That combination will keep Oregon in contention.
But the unholy trinity of new quarterback, entirely new line and revamped secondary will prevent the Ducks from winning the division, much less the conference.
2019 season: 12-2/8-1
Head coach: Mario Cristobal, third year (record: 21-6 overall/14-5 conference; 27-47 at Florida International)
Cristobal’s seat temperature: Sub-zero
Really, this category should be called ‘Oregon’s seat temperature,’ because the pressure’s on the school, not Cristobal, to create long-haul security. As we explained recently, Cristobal is drastically underpaid at $2.7 million per year. The pandemic clearly disrupted contract negotiations last spring, and we expect a new deal by early 2021 that will extend for six or eight years and make Cristobal the highest-paid coach in the conference.
Contract status: Cristobal is signed through the 2023 and will earn $2.7 million this year (excluding pandemic-related reductions)
QB clarity level: Hazy
The Ducks have a quarterback competition for the first time since the Obama Administration. Back then, transfer Dakota Prukop won the job initially, then gave way to freshman Justin Herbert. This time, sophomore Tyler Shough is the frontrunner, with transfer Anthony Brown (Boston College) giving chase. Shough played sparingly last season, while Brown has thrown 40 career touchdown passes at the Power Five level. Our guess: Shough starts the opener but not every game — with a new offensive line, Brown’s experience will be invaluable.
Roster grade: A-
There is no disputing the recruiting breakthroughs in Eugene these past few years. The Ducks are inexperienced in key areas, not lacking in across-the-board talent. How quickly the new starters turn productive will frame Oregon’s success, both this season and next. But much like Utah, the lines of scrimmage are out of balance: One side is a work in progress while the other dominates; the next year, vice versa. Oregon’s strength this fall will be on the defensive side with the likes of Jordon Scott and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Program trajectory: Rising
We view Oregon as the program most likely to control the North over the next three-to-five years, with the level of dominance depending on Jimmy Lake’s tenure in Seattle, the sustainability of Cal’s ascent under Justin Wilcox and the degree to which David Shaw can remake Stanford. Because the Ducks’ recruiting depends heavily on out-of-state and out-of-region players, their margin for error is always a tick lower than it might appear. More broadly, Oregon’s prospects for controlling the conference depend on USC reclaiming lost ground on the Southern California recruiting trails.
Our projections …
Nov. 7: vs. Stanford
Result: Loss
Record: 0-1
Comment: Oregon’s forever nemesis delivers a stunner to start the season, eliminating the Ducks from playoff contention and mucking up the North race. Maybe it even goes OT, with an 80-yard scoop-and-score.
Nov. 14: at Washington State
Result: Win
Record: 1-1
Comment: Order is restored as the defense dominates, but the Ducks depart Pullman with a quarterback controversy and little time to prepare for the arrival of an old friend.
Nov. 20 (Friday): vs. UCLA
Result: Win
Record: 2-1
Comment: It won’t be nearly as easy as the 2018 affair, in which the Cristobal Ducks looked like the Kelly Ducks while hammering the Kelly Bruins.
Nov. 27 (Friday): at Oregon State
Result: Win
Record: 3-1
Comment: Oregon’s 24-10 victory last year was something of a Civil Snore. More points this time, at least for the Ducks, but no new name as of yet.
Dec. 5: at Cal
Result: Loss
Record: 3-2
Comment: Teams combined for 19 penalties, five turnovers and just 24 points last year. We expect another grinder, only with the Bears producing the decisive touchdown in a collision with division implications for both.
Dec. 12: vs. Washington
Result: Win
Record: 4-2
Comment: For all our skepticism about Oregon’s ability to generate high-level offense on a weekly basis, we feel the same about the Huskies. Weather conditions and emotions should create highly insecure ball security.
Dec. 19: TBA
Result: N/A
Record: N/A
Comment: If they muster the urgency for a Week Seven victory, perhaps the Ducks can turn their attention to postseason matchup with an SEC power, in the Las Vegas Bowl.
*** Previous: Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA
*** Next up: Oregon State
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