Timberwolves' over-under number is 47.5 wins. How optimistic are you?
At precisely 10:59 a.m. Central time, I received an e-mail from Bet Online with over-under victory total numbers for all 30 NBA teams. One minute later, the league moratorium on signing free agents was lifted (though they could agree to deals five days ago, so the ensuing hours since the moratorium was lifted has basically been crickets).
Nonetheless, this is a reminder that it is VERY early in the process of the NBA season. Rosters are still taking shape. If the season started tomorrow, the Timberwolves might have five guys playing 48 minutes (OK, not really, but their bench is still a work in progress).
But if you want to test just how optimistic you’re feeling at this moment about the Timberwolves now that they’ve acquired Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson while emerging talents Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are a year older, here is a way to do it:
Bet Online has set the Wolves’ over-under victory total at 47.5. What does your gut tell you: they will 47 games or less … or 48-plus games?
It’s not easy, right?
On the one hand, sites like FiveThirtyEight are already projecting 50-plus wins for the Wolves. On the other hand, this is the Wolves. They won 31 games last season and have consistently underperformed projections (and hopes … and dreams) in recent seasons.
I put the question out on Twitter and it’s a pretty even split, meaning the oddsmakers did their jobs with the 47.5 number.
I’m quite confident the Wolves will win more than 40 games. I’m reasonably confident they can reach 45. But 48?
Fool me 13 times, shame on you. Fool me 14 times, shame on me.