Oklahoma's College Football Playoff hopes benefited the most from Alabama's loss

Can Oklahoma earn a third straight College Football Playoff appearance?

It is incredibly likely that Alabama will not make the College Football Playoff for the first time since the four-team format was implemented in 2014 after the Crimson Tide suffered their second loss of the season Saturday, falling to Auburn, 48-45.

A two-loss team has never been invited to the playoff, and for it to happen for the first time, that team would likely need to be a conference champion — at a minimum.

Statistically, Oklahoma benefited the most from Alabama’s loss because the Sooners’ chance to make the playoff jumped to 37 percent, up from just 12 percent last week, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. While most other playoff contenders’ chances got a bump this week, Oklahoma’s 25-point surge was, by far, the largest.

The Sooners play Baylor on Saturday in the Big 12 championship game, and, assuming Ohio State, LSU and Clemson win their respective conference titles, the Big 12 champ will face off against Utah — should it win the Pac-12 title game Friday against two-loss Oregon — for the fourth playoff spot.

Baylor currently has an eight percent chance to make the playoff, so the algorithm behind the Playoff Predictor clearly favors the Sooners in this one. Should they beat the Bears for the second time this season, they’ll have a shot at a third straight playoff appearance. And for transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts, it could be his fourth straight trip to the playoff after making it with Alabama the last three seasons.

Utah’s playoff chance remains the same as last week at nine percent, while the Ducks have virtually no chance and are down to less than one percent. If Utah wins the Pac-12, it needs to hope the selection committee views its resume more favorably than that of Oklahoma or Baylor.

After losing a second game, Alabama’s playoff and title chances are down to less than one percent, the lowest they’ve been in the Playoff Predictor’s first two seasons.

The top-3 teams all saw their chances to make the playoff and to win the national championship increase following Week 14’s games, and, at this point, Ohio State or LSU could lose its conference championship game and still make it. Ohio State’s and Clemson’s chances to win a national title are each up two points from last week, while LSU’s championship chance is up by four.

The Playoff Predictor numbers are based on a variety of factors considered by the selection committee, including wins and losses, strength of schedule, conference championships, the Football Power Index and the committee’s past behavior.

Here’s a look at the top-10 teams’ chances ahead of the conference title games.

1. Ohio State (12-0)

Playoff: 98 percent
Win championship: 39 percent

2. Clemson (12-0)

Playoff: 94 percent
Win championship: 29 percent

3. LSU (12-0)

Playoff: 92 percent
Win championship: 19 percent

4. Georgia (11-1)

Playoff: 53 percent
Win championship: 8 percent

5. Oklahoma (11-1)

Playoff: 37 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

6. Utah (10-1)

Playoff: 9 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

7. Baylor (11-1)

Playoff: 8 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

8. Wisconsin (10-2)

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

9. Florida (10-2)

Playoff: 3 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Alabama (10-2)

Playoff: Less than 1 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

See the full Playoff Predictor list here.