ADB Improves Armenia's economic growth forecast for 2024 to 6%, 2025 forecast unchanged
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YEREVAN, September 26 /ARKA/. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Armenia's economy to grow by 6% in 2024, with a forecast of 6% for 2025, according to the ADB's ‘’Asian Development Outlook’’ (September 2024) report.nbsp;br/pp
In the previous report in May, the forecast for Armenia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2024 was 5.7%, and for 2025 – 6%./pp
The current report notes that Armenia's economic growth slowed to 6.5% in the first half of 2024 from a double-digit 10.5% last year.nbsp;/pp
On the supply side, a 33.7% decline in net remittances from abroad halved the expansion of the services sector to 7.5% from 14.7% in the previous year, reflecting a decline in income across all subsectors, the report said./pp
It is noted that growth in the manufacturing sector excluding construction increased from 2.5% in the first half of 2023 to 7.5%, largely reflecting a 9.2% increase in industrial production, especially in the jewelry sector, as well as utility revenues, which offset a 10.7% decline in the mining sector./pp
Construction grew at a weaker 15.9% from 19.4%, helped by public investment in highways and social infrastructure, to a lesser extent, private housing. Relatively strong crop and livestock production doubled agricultural sector growth to 4.9% from 2.3% last year, the report said.nbsp;/pp
In the context of demand, ADB analysts point out that the main drivers of growth were private consumption and investment./pp “Private consumption grew at a faster pace in the first half of 2024 to 7.5% from 6.8% last year, reflecting deflation and rising consumer lending. Public consumption fell by 14.9%, reversing the previous year’s 27.4% growth and reflecting lower budgetary spending on operations and maintenance,” the report said./pp
Experts also note that the growth of gross fixed capital formation accelerated to 22.3% from 15.0% last year, primarily due to an increase in government investment, despite somewhat restrained private investment.nbsp;/pp
Figures and forecasts for the Armenian economy/pp
The state budget for 2024 envisages economic growth in Armenia at 7%. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the country's economic growth in 2024 to be in the range of 6.5-5.8%. -0-/pp nbsp;/p